Rejecting the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis on Attendance Demand in all Four Major European Football Leagues

  • Nick Damgaard Jespersen University of Southern Denmark
  • Line Bjørnskov Pedersen DaCHE & FEA, University og Southern Denmark
Nøgleord: Uncertainty of Outcome, attendance demand, betting odds, tobit estimation, European football


The uncertainty of outcome (UO) hypothesis, stating that spectators prefer matches with uncertain outcomes, has over the years been tested across different sports and countries yielding different conclusions. In the case of European football, results are mixed, perhaps due to variation in the use of UO measures, explanatory variables, seasons and econometric models. We test the UO hypothesis on the four major European football leagues using the same variables, seasons and econometric models across leagues. The results show that the UO hypothesis is rejected in all four leagues.


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