Partiskift – valggevinst eller vælgerlussing
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v57i4.160490Nøgleord:
vælgeradfærd, partiskift, kommunalvalg, politikeres motivationResumé
Straffer vælgerne folkevalgte kommunalpolitikere, der skifter parti i løbet af en valgperiode? Ved hjælp af valgdata fra danske kommunalvalg 2009-2021 viser denne artikel, at vælgere straffer partiskiftere med 0,33 procentpoint færre af en kommunes stemmer ved det efterfølgende valg. I en gennemsnitlig kommune med 30.000 stemmeberettigede svarer dette til ca. 100 personlige stemmer. Undersøgelsen finder videre, at opportunistiske skiftere straffes hårdere end idealistiske, og at et tidligt skifte straffes hårdere end et sent. Resultaterne indikerer, at partiskift har betydelige omkostninger for politikere og påvirker vælgernes tillid og støtte.
Referencer
Agboga, Victor (2024). Testing political loyalties in Nigeria: What factors influence support for party switchers? The Round Table 113 (2): 117-130.
Bøggild, Troels (2016a). How politicians’ reelection efforts can reduce public trust, electoral support, and policy approval. Political Psychology 37 (6): 901-919.
Bøggild, Troels (2016b). Procedural fairness and public opinion. Ph.d.-afhandling. Politica.
Bøggild, Troels og Michael Bang Petersen (2016). The evolved functions of procedural fairness: An adaptation for politics, pp. 247-276 i Todd K. Shackelford og Ranald D. Hansen (red.), The evolution of morality. Springer International Publishing.
Bøggild, Troels, Lene Aarøe og Michael Bang Petersen (2021). Citizens as complicits: Distrust in politicians and biased social dissemination of political information. American Political Science Review 115 (1): 269-285.
Christensen, Anna M. og Christian Stjer (2021). Tilliden til det politiske system er under pres. Voxmeter. (26. november, 2023).
Danmarks Statistik (2023). Den Danske Valgdatabase. (10. december, 2023).
Elmelund-Præstekær, Christian (2017). Hvordan gik det partiafhoppere ved valget?, kapitel 12 i Jørgen Elklit, Christian Elmelund-Præstekær og Ulrik Kjær (red.) KV13 – Analyser af kommunalvalget 2013. Syddansk Universitetsforlag.
Fell, Dafydd (2017). Do party switchers pay an electoral price? The case of Taiwan. Parliamentary Affairs 70 (2): 377-399.
Gailmard, Sean (2014). Accountability and principal-agent theory, kapitel 6 i Mark Bovens, Robert Goodin og Thomas Schillemans (red.), The Oxford handbook of public accountability. Oxford Academic.
Gherghina, Sergiu (2016). Rewarding the “traitors”? Legislative defection and re-election in Romania. Party Politics 22 (4): 490-500.
Grose, Christian (2004). Is it better to join the majority? The electoral effects of party switching by incumbent southern state legislators, 1972 to 2000. American Review of Politics 25: 79-98.
Grose, Christian og Antoine Yoshinaka (2003). The electoral consequences of party switching by incumbent members of Congress, 1947-2000. Legislative Studies Quarterly 28(1): 55-75.
Hott, Henrique Augusto Campos Fernandez og Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai (2021). Party switching and political outcomes: Evidence from Brazilian municipalities. Public Choice 187 (3-4): 403-438.
Indenrigs- og Sundhedsministeriet (u.å.). Kommunernes styrelse (4. august 2025).
Juul, Laura og Sophie Brochdorff Himmelstrup (2017). Flertal af vælgerne siger nej til partihopperi. DR. (26. november, 2023).
Kerevel, Yann P. (2017). The costs and benefits of party switching in Mexico. Latin American Politics and Society 59 (1): 28-51.
KMD (2023). Valgresultater fra tidligere valg. (10. december, 2023).
Kosiara-Pedersen, Karina (2017). Demokratiets ildsjæle: Partimedlemmer i Danmark. Djøf Forlag.
McAndrews, John R., Feodor Snagovsky og Paul E.J. Thomas (2019). How citizens judge extreme legislative dissent: Experimental evidence from Canada on party switching. Parliamentary Affairs 73 (2): 323-341.
Mershon, Carol og Olga Shvetsova (2013). The microfoundations of party system stability in legislatures. The Journal of Politics 75 (4): 865-878.
Müller, Wolfgang C. og Kaare Strøm (1999). Policy, office, or votes?: How political parties in Western Europe make hard decisions. Cambridge University Press.
Nielsen, Marie Kaldahl og Helene Helboe Pedersen (2017). Partiskift i Folketinget 1953-2015. Økonomi og Politik 90 (3): 52-63.
Nielsen, Marie Kaldahl, Ann Møgeltoft Andersen og Helene Helboe Pedersen (2019). Balancing costs of legislative party switching in the Danish parliament 1953-2015. Parliamentary Affairs 72 (1): 42-58.
Oscarsson, Henrik og Martin Rosema (2019). Consideration set models of electoral choice: Theory, method, and application. Electoral Studies 57: 256-262.
Panagopoulos, Costas (2011). Timing is everything? Primacy and recency effects in voter mobilization campaigns. Political Behavior 33 (1): 79-93.
Radean, Marius (2019). Sometimes you cannot have it all: Party switching and affiliation motivations as substitutes. Party Politics 25 (2): 140-152.
Sevi, Semra, Antoine Yoshinaka og André Blais (2018). Legislative party switching and the changing nature of the Canadian party system, 1867-2015. Canadian Journal of Political Science 51 (3): 665-695.
Shabad, Goldie og Kazimierz M. Slomczynski (2004). Inter-party mobility among parliamentary candidates in post-communist East Central Europe. Party Politics 10 (2): 151-176.
Snagovsky, Feodor og Matthew Kerby (2018). The electoral consequences of party switching in Canada: 1945-2011. Canadian Journal of Political Science 51 (2): 425-445.
Stock, James H. og Mark W. Watson (2003). Introduction to econometrics. Addison Wesley.
Thomsen, Søren Risbjerg (2012). Stikprøveudvælgelse, kapitel 14 i Lotte Bøgh Andersen, Kasper Møller Hansen og Robert Klemmensen (red.), Metoder i Statskundskab, 2. udg. Hans Reitzels Forlag.
Toft, Jonna (2022). Næsten hver femte politiker har forladt sit parti i Folketinget. Vid&Sans. (13. november, 2023).
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. (2013). Introductory econometrics: a modern approach. South-Western.
Yoshinaka, Antoine og Seth C. McKee (2019). Short-term pain for long-term gain: The logic of legislative party switching in the contemporary American South. State Politics & Policy Quarterly 19 (2): 259-281.
Downloads
Publiceret
Citation/Eksport
Nummer
Sektion
Licens
Copyright (c) 2025 PoliticaOphavsretten tilhører Politica. Materialet må ikke bruges eller distribueres i kommercielt øjemed.
