Path Reinforcer or Policy Accelerator? COVID-19 and Scandinavian Social Protection Reform Trajectories
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18291/njwls.145479Keywords:
Labor Market Institutions & Social Partners, Employment, Wages, Unemployment & RehabilitationAbstract
A pandemic may change the use of social protection systems. In this article, we compare Scandinavian reform trajectories of unemployment benefits and sickness benefits following the COVID-19 pandemic. From an institutional theory perspective, we have analyzed official documents on regulations proposed in government bills, public inquiries, reports, and secondary literature published between March 2020 and December 2023, as well as interview data from key actors representing the state, the social partners, and related stakeholder organizations. The findings show that Denmark and Norway implemented mostly provisional reforms and thus ended in path reinforcement. In Sweden, on the contrary, numerous provisional reforms during the pandemic turned out to become permanent in the post-pandemic period. As the pandemic legitimized permanent changes that in some cases had been debated for a long time in Sweden, it thus came to act as a path-clearing policy accelerator.
Author Biographies
Mattias Bengtsson, University of Gothenburg
Associate Professor, Department of Sociology and Work Science. E-mail:mattias.bengtsson@socav.gu.se
Laust Høgedahl, Aalborg University
Associate Professor, Department of Politics and Society
Jørgen Svalund, Fafo Institute for Labour and Social Research
Research Professor
References
Anttonen, A., L. Häikiö, K. Stefánsson & J. Sipilä (2012). Universalism and the challenge of diversity, In A. Anttonen, L. Häikiö & K. Stefánsson (Eds.), Welfare State, Universalism and Diversity (pp. 1–15), Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
Arbetsmarknadsdepartementet (2023). En inkomstbaserad a-kassa bör införas. Pressmeddelande 18 september 2023. [An income-based unemployment fund should be introduced].
Béland, D., Cantillon, B., Hick, R. & Moreira, A. (2021). Social policy in the face of a global pandemic: Policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis, Social Policy & Administration 55(2): 249–260. DOI: 10.1111/spol.12718
Bengtsson, M. (2014). Towards standby-ability: Swedish and Danish activation policies in flux, International Journal of Social Welfare 23, Supplement 1: S54–S70. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12075
Bengtsson, M. & Jacobsson, K. (2018). The institutionalization of a new social cleavage: Ideological influences, main reforms and social inequality outcomes of 'the new work strategy', Sociologisk Forskning 55(2–3): 155–177. https://doi.org/10.37062/sf.55.18188
Birkelund, H. R. (2020a). Arbeidsløse får ikke feriepenger: Regjeringen står på sitt: De som går på dagpenger får ikke feriepenger neste år. Frifagbevegelse. https://frifagbevegelse.no/nyheter/regjeringen-star-pa-sitt-de-som-gar-pa-dagpenger-far-ikke-feriepenger-neste-ar-6.158.703842.e45bbf2986 [Unemployed people do not receive paid vacations: The government stands its ground: Those on unemployment benefit will not get paid vacations next year].
Birkelund, H. R. (2020b). Permitterte og arbeidsløse: Høyere dagpengesats forlenges ut året: – Glad regjeringen lyttet til LO. Fri Fagbevegelse. https://frifagbevegelse.no/nyheter/hoyere-dagpengesats-forlenges-ut-aret--glad-regjeringen-lyttet-til-lo-6.158.725311.98b5340ac1 [Laid off and unemployed: Higher unemployment benefit rate extended until the end of the year: - Pleased the government listened to LO].
Blyth, M. (2002). Great Transformations. Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Capano, G., Howlett, M., Jarvis, D.S.L. & Ramesh, M. (2022). Long-term policy impacts of the coronavirus: normalization, adaptation, and acceleration in the post-COVID state, Policy and Society 41(1): 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1093/polsoc/puab018
Christensen, A. (2000). Protection of the Established Position. A Basic Normative Pattern, in Scandinavian Studies in Law Volume 40 – Legal Theory (pp. 285–324), Stockholm: Jure.
Christensen J., Fløtten T., Hippe, J. M., Svalund, J. & Trygstad, S. (2009). De nordiske modellene etter 2000 – utviklinga i Norge, Oslo: Fafo. [The Nordic models after 2000 – developments in Norway].
Chohan, U.W. (2022). The return of Keynesianism? Exploring path dependency and ideational change in post-covid fiscal policy, Policy and Society 41(1): 68–82. https://doi.org/10.1093/polsoc/puab013
DA (2019). Sygefravær koster samfundet og virksomheder dyrt. https://www.da.dk/politik-og-analyser/arbejdsmiljoe-og-sundhed/2019/sygefravaer-koster-samfundet-og-virksomhederne-dyrt/ [Sickness absence costs society and businesses dearly].
Dir. 2018:8. En ny arbetslöshetsförsäkring för fler, grundad på inkomster. Kommittédirektiv. [A new unemployment insurance for more people, based on earnings].
Ds 2023:33. Karenstak och högriskskydd – en översyn av karensavdraget och förslag på utökade undantag. Socialdepartementet. [Waiting period ceiling and high-risk protection – a review of the waiting day deduction and proposals for extended exemptions].
Dølvik, J.-E., Goul Andersen, J. & Vartiainen, J. (2015). The Nordic social models in turbulent times. Consolidation and flexible adaptation, In J. E. Dølvik & A. Martin (Eds.), European Social Models from Crisis to Crisis. Employment and Inequality in the Era of Monetary Integration (pp. 246–286), Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Esping-Andersen, G. (1990). The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism, Oxford: Polity Press.
Falch, N. S., Hardoy, I. & Røed, K. (2012). Analyse av en dagpengereform: Virkninger av forkortet dagpengeperiode, Søkelys på arbeidslivet 29(3): 181–197. [Analysis of an unemployment benefit reform: Effects of a shortened unemployment benefit period].
Goul Andersen, J. (2012). Universalization and de-universalization of unemployment protection in Denmark and Sweden, In A. Anttonen, L. Häikiö & K. Stefánsson (Eds.), Welfare State, Universalism and Diversity (pp. 162–186), Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
Greve, B., Blomquist, P., Hvinden, B. & van Gerven, M. (2021). Nordic welfare states—Still standing or changed by the COVID-19 crisis? Social Policy & Administration 55(2): 295–311. https://doi.org/10.1111/spol.12675
Hagelund, A. & Pedersen, A. W. (2015). To reform or not reform? Explaining the coexistence of successful pension reform and sick pay inertia in Norway, In F. Engelstad & A. Hagelund (Eds.), Cooperation and Conflict the Nordic Way (pp. 220–241). Berlin: De Gruyter open.
Hall, P. A. (1993). Policy paradigms, social learning, and the state. The case of economic policymaking in Britain, Comparative Politics 25(3): 275–296. https://doi.org/10.2307/422246
Hall, P. A. (2010). Historical institutionalism in rationalist and sociological perspective, In J. Mahoney & K. Thelen (Eds.), Explaining Institutional Change. Ambiguity, Agency, and Power (pp. 204–223). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Halvorsen, R. & Jensen, P. H. (2004). Activation in Scandinavian welfare policy. Denmark and Norway in a comparative perspective, European Societies 6(4): 461–483. https://doi.org/10.1080/1461669042000275863
Hogan, J., Howlett, M. & Murphy, M. (2022). Re-thinking the coronavirus pandemic as a policy punctuation: COVID-19 as a path-clearing policy accelerator, Policy and Society 41(1): 40–52. https://doi.org/10.1093/polsoc/puab009
Høgedahl, L. & Kongshøj, K. (2017). New trajectories of unionization in the Nordic Ghent countries: Changing labour market and welfare institutions, European Journal of Industrial Relations 23(4): 365–380. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959680116687666
Johansson, H. & Hvinden, B. (2007). Re-activating the Nordic welfare states: Do we find a distinct universalistic model? International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 27(7–8): 334–346. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443330710773908
Mahoney, J. & Thelen, K. (2010). A theory of gradual institutional change, In J. Mahoney & K. Thelen (Eds.), Explaining Institutional Change. Ambiguity, Agency, and Power (pp. 1–37), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Mykletunutvalget (2010). Tiltak for reduksjon i sykefravær: Aktiviserings‐og nærværsreform. Expert commission report to the Ministry of Labour 01.02.10. [Measures to reduce sickness absence: Activation and attendance reform].
NOU 1990:23. Sykelønnsordningen, Oslo: Forvaltningstjenestene. [The sick pay scheme].
NOU 2000:27. Sykefravær og uførepensjonering. Et inkluderende arbeidsliv. Oslo: Statens forvaltningstjeneste. [Sickness absence and disability retirement. An inclusive working life].
OECD (2015). OECD Income Inequality Data Update: Sweden (January 2015), Paris: OECD.
Pierson, P. (2002). Coping with permanent austerity: Welfare state restructuring in affluent democracies, Revue française de sociologie 43(2): 369–406. https://doi.org/10.2307/3322510
Prop. 4 L (2021–2022). Endringer i folketrygdloven og enkelte andre lover (samleproposisjon høsten 2021), Oslo: Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion. [Amendments to the National Insurance Act and certain other laws (collective proposition autumn 2021)].
Prop. 2022/23:85. En fortsatt stärkt arbetslöshetsförsäkring, Stockholm: Arbetsmarknadsdepartementet. [A continued reinforcement of unemployment insurance].
Regeringskansliet (2022). Viktigare lagar och förordningar inför årsskiftet 2022/2023. Stockholm. [Key laws and regulations at the turn of 2022/2023].
Regjeringen Solberg IV (2020a). Forhøyet dagpengesats ut året. Pressemelding 27 August 2020. Arbeids- og sosialdepartementet. [Increased unemployment benefit rate for the rest of the year].
Regjeringen Solberg IV (2020b). Forlenger regler for sykepenger, omsorgspenger og dagpenger. Pressemelding 3 November 2020. Arbeids og sosialdepartementet. [Extends rules for sickness benefit, care allowance and unemployment benefit.]
Riksgälden (2023). Statsskuldens utveckling. Retrieved November 24, 2023, from Statsskuldens utveckling - Riksgälden.se (riksgalden.se) [Development of government debt].
Shahidi, F.V. (2015). Welfare capitalism in crisis: A qualitative comparative analysis of labour market policy responses to the Great Recession, Journal of Social Policy 44(4): 659–686. DOI: 10.1017/S004727941500029X
SOU 2019:2. Ingen regel utan undantag – en trygg sjukförsäkring med människan i centrum. Stockholm. [No rules without exceptions – a secure, people-centered sickness insurance scheme].
SOU 2020:6. En begriplig och trygg sjukförsäkring med plats för rehabilitering. Stockholm. [An understandable and secure sickness insurance with room for rehabilitation].
SOU 2020:26. En sjukförsäkring anpassad efter individen. Stockholm. [Sickness insurance adapted to the individual].
SOU 2022:10. Sverige under pandemin. Stockholm. [Sweden during the pandemic].
Streeck, W. (2017). A new regime. The consolidation state, In D. King & P. Le Galès (Eds.), Reconfiguring European States in Crisis, Oxford: Oxford Scholarship Online
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 Author and Journal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The Copyright Holder of this Journal is the authors and the Journal. Normally the journal use the CC-BY NC-ND 4.0 licence.
Exceptions to the license terms may be granted
If you want to use content in the Journal in another way then described by this license, you must contact the licensor and ask for permission. Contact Bo Carstens at bo.carstens@gmail.com. Exceptions are always given for specific purposes and specific content only.
Sherpa/Romeo
The Journal is listed as a blue journal in Sherpa/Romeo, meaning that the author can archive post-print ((ie final draft post-refereeing) and author can archive publisher's version/PDF.
Copyright of others
Authors are responsible for obtaining permission from copyright holders for reproducing any illustrations, tables, figures or lengthy quotations previously published elsewhere.
Archives policy
All published material is archived at Roskilde University Library, Denmark, and transmitted to the Danish Royal Library in conformity with the Danish rules of legal deposit.
Plagiarism screening
We do not screen articles for plagiarism. It is the responsibility of the authors to make sure they do not plagiate.
