The impact of external threats on support for democracy: a natural experiment

Abstract

This article examines how external threats affect democratic support understood as institutional trust, evaluations of democratic performance, and support for democratic principles. Theoretically, it argues that increased uncertainty following external threats may influence these dimensions through both legitimacy-based evaluations and rally-‘round-the-flag dynamics and potentially either increase or decrease democratic support. The analysis employs an unexpected event during survey design (UESD) and uses Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as an exogenous shock. Drawing on data from Round 10 of the European Social Survey, the study analyzes effects across 13 European countries and 20,373 respondents. The results show that heightened external threat levels reduce institutional trust and evaluations of democratic performance. At the same time, support for democratic principles remains stable. The findings demonstrate that external threats can weaken specific forms of democratic support without undermining citizens’ normative commitment to democracy as a system of governance.