Eksterne truslers betydning for støtte til demokrati – et naturligt eksperiment
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v58i3.167958Keywords:
eksterne trusler, institutionel tillid, demokratisk performance, demokratistøtte, unexpected event during survey design, russisk-ukrainske krigAbstract
Denne artikel undersøger, hvordan eksterne trusler påvirker borgernes støtte til demokrati, forstået som institutionel tillid, vurdering af demokratisk performance og tilslutning til demokratiske principper. Teoretisk argumenteres der for, at øget usikkerhed som følge af eksterne trusler kan påvirke disse dimensioner gennem både legitimitetsvurderinger og rally-’round-the-flag-dynamikker og dermed enten øge eller reducere demokratistøtte. Analysen bygger på et unexpected event during survey design (UESD), hvor Ruslands invasion af Ukraine i februar 2022 fungerer som et eksogent chok. Baseret på data fra den 10. runde af the European Social Survey analyseres effekten på tværs af 13 europæiske lande og 20.373 respondenter. Resultaterne viser, at det øgede eksterne trusselsniveau reducerer borgernes institutionelle tillid og deres vurdering af demokratisk performance. Samtidig forbliver tilslutningen til demokratiske principper stabil. Studiet viser dermed, at eksterne trusler kan svække den specifikke demokratistøtte uden at underminere den normative opbakning til demokrati som styreform.
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