Russiske påvirkningsoperationer i Ukrainekrigen i 2014 og 2022 – aktive foranstaltninger og maskirovka

Authors

  • Jørgen Staun
  • Patrick Eikeland

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v55i2.137156

Keywords:

aktive foranstaltninger, maskirovka, Rusland, Ukraine, påvirkningsoperationer

Abstract

Hvordan tænker den russiske sikkerhedspolitiske og militære elite påvirkningsoperationer? Og hvordan har man brugt påvirkningsoperationer i praksis i de to krige i Ukraine, i 2014 og 2022? Dette undersøger vi ved at søge at indfange den russiske forståelse af påvirkningsoperationer ved hjælp af begreberne ”aktive foranstaltninger” og ”maskirovka”. Og som man måske kunne forvente, er aktive foranstaltninger og maskirovka blevet anvendt aktivt af Rusland i krigene mod Ukraine. Størst succes havde man i 2014, hvor Ukraine og Vesten stort set blev taget på sengen og Krim erobret nærmest uden kamp. Under invasionen i 2022 har de russiske påvirkningsoperationer dog også haft succes. Først og fremmest i forhold til at vildlede Ukraine om, hvor hovedangrebet blev sat ind. En vildledning, der kunne have haft fatale konsekvenser for Ukraine.

References

Al-Hlou, Yousur, Masha Froliak, Evan Hill, Malachy Browne og David Botti (2022). New evidence shows how Russian soldiers executed men in Bucha. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/world/europe/russia-bucha-ukraine-executions.html (19. maj, 2022).

Balmforth, Tom og Max Hunder (2022). Ukraine’s president fires spy chief and top state prosecutor. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-president-fires-security-service-chief-prosecutor-general-2022-07-17/ (17. juli, 2022).

Barnes, Julian, Helene Cooper og Eric Schmitt (2022). U.S. Intelligence is helping Ukraine kill Russian generals, officials say. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/politics/russia-generals-killed-ukraine.html (4. maj, 2022).

Bessudnov, Alexey (2022). Russia’s tricky opinion polling sociologist Alexey Bessudnov shares five charts that help explain how to read the Kremlin’s survey data on support for the war in Ukraine. Meduza. https://amp.meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/07/russia-s-tricky-opinion-polling (3. juli, 2022).

Dalsjö, Robert, Michael Jonsson og Johan Norberg (2022). A brutal examination: Russian military capability in light of the Ukraine War. Survival 64 (3): 7-28.

Darczewska, Jolanta og Piotr Żochowski (2017). Active measures. Russia’s key export. OSW Point of View 64. http://aei.pitt.edu/88535/ (22. maj, 2023).

Fedchenkov, Yevhen (2016). Kremlin propaganda: Soviet active measures by other means. Estonian Journal of Military Studies (2): 140-170.

Felix Dzerzhinsky Akademiet (1972). Kontrazvedyvatelnyy slovar [Ordbog for kontraspionage]. Felix Dzerzhinsky Akademiet. https://en.booksee.org/book/1343215 (22. marts, 2023).

Fisher, Max (2022). Putin’s baseless claims of genocide hint at more than war. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/world/europe/putin-ukraine-genocide.html (19. februar, 2022).

Gessen, Masha (2022). Inside Putin’s propaganda machine. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-communications/inside-putins-propaganda-machine (18. maj, 2022).

Giles, Keir (2016). Handbook of Russian information warfare. Bd. 9. NATO Defence College. https://www.ndc.nato.int/download/downloads.php?icode=506 (22. marts, 2023).

Hamilton, David L. (1986). Deception in Soviet military doctrine and operations. Naval Postgraduate School Monterey. Monterey, Californien.

Jankowicz, Mia (2022). Putin purged large numbers of FSB agents in retribution for poor Ukraine intelligence, Russia expert says. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-purges-fsb-over-ukraine-failures-bellingcat-expert-2022-4?r=US&IR=T (4. december, 2022).

Jonsson, Michael og Johan Norberg (2022). Russia’s war against Ukraine: Military scenarios and outcomes. Survival 64 (6): 91-122.

Jonsson, Oscar (2019). The Russian understanding of war: Blurring the lines between war and peace. Georgetown University Press.

Kizilova, Kseniya (2022). Assessing Russian public opinion on the Ukraine War. Russian Analytical Digest, nr. 281. https://css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/RAD281.pdf (22. marts, 2023)

Kofman, Michael, Anya Fink, Dmitry Gorenburg, Mary Chesnut, Jeffrey Edmonds og Julian Waller (2021). Russian military strategy: Core tenets and operational concepts. CNA. https://www.cna.org/archive/CNA_Files/pdf/russian-military-strategy-core-tenets-and-operational-concepts.pdf (22. marts, 2023)

Kofman, Michael og Rob Lee (2022). Not built for purpose: The Russian Militarys’s ill-fated force design. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/ (6. februar, 2022).

Kragh, Martin og Sebastian Åsberg (2017). Russia’s strategy for influence through public diplomacy and active measures: The Swedish case. Journal of Strategic Studies 40 (6): 773-816.

Kux, Dennis (1985). Soviet active measures and disinformation: Overview and assessment. Parmeters 15 (4): 19-28.

Kuzio, Taras (2019). Old wine in a new bottle: Russia’s modernization of traditional Soviet information warfare and active policies against Ukraine and Ukrainians. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies 32 (4): 485-506.

Levada Centre (2022). The conflict with Ukraine and responsibility for the deaths of civilians. Levada Centre. https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/05/18/the-conflict-with-ukraine-and-responsibility-for-the-deaths-of-civilians/ (22. marts, 2023)

Miller, Greg og Catherine Belton (2022). Russia’s spies misread Ukraine and misled Kremlin as war loomed. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/ (19. august, 2022).

Pilkinton, Ed og Gloria Oladipo (2022). What are Russia’s biological weapons claims and what’s actually happening? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/russia-biological-weapon-claim-us-un-ukraine-bio-labs-explainer (22. marts, 2022).

Putin, Vladimir (2014a). Vladimir Putin answered journalists’ questions on the situation in Ukraine. President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20366 (22. marts, 2023).

Putin, Vladimir (2014b). Direct line with Vladimir Putin. President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20796 (22. marts 2023).

Putin, Vladimir (2022a). Address by the President of the Russian Federation (21 February). President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828 (22. marts, 2023).

Putin, Vladimir (2022b). Address by the President of the Russian Federation (24 February). President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843 (22. marts, 2023).

Putin, Vladimir (2023). Presidential Address to Federal Assembly. President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70565 (22. marts, 2023).

Pynnöniemi, Katri Pauliina og Andras Rácz (2016). Fog of falsehood: Russian strategy of deception and the conflict in Ukraine. FIIA Report 45. Helsinki: The Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Salerno-Garthwaite, Andrew (2022). OSINT in Ukraine: Civilians in the kill chain and information space. Global Defence Technology. https://defence.nridigital.com/global_defence_technology_oct22/osint_in_ukraine (22. marts, 2023).

Seddon, Max (2022). Vladimir Putin, Russia’s resentful leader, takes the world to war. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/c039db89-7201-4875-b31f-b41a511496f1 (25. februar, 2022).

Seddon, Max, Christopher Miller og Felicia Schwartz (2023). How Putin blundered into Ukraine — then doubled down. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/80002564-33e8-48fb-b734-44810afb7a49 (23. februar, 2023).

Sly, Lis (2022). Nine ways Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/how-russia-botched-ukraine-invasion/ (4. august, 2022).

Smith, Charles Lynwood (1988). Soviet maskirovka. Airpower Journal 2 (1): 28-40.

Soldatov, Andrei og Irina Borodan (2010). Russia’s new nobility. Foreign Affairs 89 (5): 80-96.

Soldatov, Andrei og Irina Borogan (2022a). From bad intel to worse: Putin reportedly turns on FSB agency that botched Russia’s Ukraine prep. Meduza. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/11/from-bad-intel-to-worse (3. november, 2022).

Soldatov, Andrei og Irina Borogan (2022b). Putin places spies under house arrest. CEPA. https://cepa.org/putin-places-spies-under-house-arrest/ (3. november, 2022).

Tass (2022). Bioweapon labs in Ukraine prove US criminal activity, diplomat says. TASS. https://tass.com/world/1418925?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com (3. september, 2022).

Taylor, Adam (2022). Russia’s attack on Ukraine came after months of denials it would attack. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/ukraine-russia-denials/ (24. februar, 2022).

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2022). Vystupleniye Postoyannogo predstavitelya Rossiyskoy Federatsii pri otdelenii OON i mezhdunarodnykh organizatsiyakh v Zheneve G.M.Gatilova na plenarnom zasedanii Konferentsii po razoruzheniyu, Zheneva, 31 marta 2022 goda (Address by G.M.Gatilov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Office and International Organisations in Geneva, to the plenary session of the Conference on Disarmament, Geneva, 31 March 2022). Mid.ru. https://www.mid.ru/print/?id=1807445&lang=ru (22. marts, 2023).

Ulfving, Lars (2005). Rysk krigskonst – Voennoe iskusstvo: en introduktion till den ryska militärvetenskapen sedd i ett militärteoretiskt, empiriskt och historiskt perspektiv. Stockholm: Forsvarshögskolan.

United States Department of State (1986). Active measures: A report on the substance and process of anti-U.S. disinformation and propaganda campaigns. United States Department of State. http://insidethecoldwar.org/sites/default/files/documents/Soviet%20Active%20Measures%20Substance%20and%20Process%20of%20Anti-US%20Disinformation%20August%201986.pdf (22. marts, 2023).

Willett, Marcus (2022). The cyber dimension of the Russia-Ukraine war. Survival 64 (5): 7-26.

Zabrodsky, Mykhaylo, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk og Nick Renolds (2022). Preliminary lessons in conventional warfighting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: February-July 2022. RUSI. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022 (22. marts, 2023).

Downloads

Published

2023-05-02

How to Cite

Staun, J., & Eikeland, P. (2023). Russiske påvirkningsoperationer i Ukrainekrigen i 2014 og 2022 – aktive foranstaltninger og maskirovka. Politica. Tidsskrift for Politisk Videnskab, 55(2), 97–117. https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v55i2.137156