Cyberdomænet i Ukrainekrigen: et udvidet kamprum med proxyaktører, eskalationsstiger og fjendemærkater
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v55i1.135827Keywords:
Ukrainekrigen, cyberdomænet, it-hær, eskalationsgitter, attribueringAbstract
Ruslands invasion af Ukraine indvarsler en ny æra af konflikt mellem teknologisk avancerede stater, hvor det fysiske domænes konventionelle krig smelter sammen med krigsførelse i cyberdomænet. Ukrainekrigens unikke karakter er kendetegnet ved et udvidet kamprum, hvor den militære logik trænger ind i den civile sfære og skaber nye konfliktrelationer på tværs af offentlige og private skillelinjer. På denne baggrund udforsker artiklen, hvordan Ukrainekrigens udvikling informerer tre af cyberdomænets kernespørgsmål. Første spørgsmål handler om relationen mellem staten og ikkestatslige aktører med et fokus på brugen af cyberproxyer i krigen under inddragelse af Ukraines it-hær. Andet spørgsmål handler om afskrækkelse og eskalering af konflikten gennem cyberdomænets eskalationsstiger og -tærskler, der angår strategisk signalering og udvides med eskalationsgitteret. Tredje spørgsmål omhandler attribuering, der er en politisk højspændt affære, hvor aktøren bag cyberoperationer påsættes et fjendemærkat. Artiklen konkluderer på, hvordan de hidtidige erfaringer fra krigen kan informere brugen af cyberdomænet i fremtidens konflikter.
References
Abrams, Lawrence (2022). Ukraine recruits “IT army” to hack Russian entities, lists 31 targets. BleepingComputer, 26. februar. https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/ukraine-recruits-it-army-to-hack-russian-entities-lists-31-targets/
Bugge, Mathilde (2022). Eksperter kalder mystisk droneaktivitet ”påfaldende” efter Nord Stream-eksplosion. DR, 30. september 2022 https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/eksperter-kalder-mystisk-droneaktivitet-paafaldende-efter-nord-stream-eksplosion
Cerulus, Laurens (2022). Kyiv’s hackers seize their wartime moment. POLITICO, 10. marts. https://www.politico.eu/article/kyiv-cyber-firm-state-backed-hacking-group/
Conger, Kate (2022). Ukraine says it thwarted a sophisticated Russian cyberattack on its power grid. The New York Times, 12. april. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/us/politics/ukraine-russian-cyberattack.html
Cullen, Patrick J. og Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud (2017). MCDC countering hybrid warfare project: Understanding hybrid warfare. Multinational Capability Development Campaign. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/647776/dar_mcdc_hybrid_warfare.pdf
Delcker, Janosch (2022). Ukraine’s IT army: Who are the cyber guerrillas hacking Russia? Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/en/ukraines-it-army-who-are-the-cyber-guerrillas-hacking-russia/a-61247527
DoD (2011). Department of Defense strategy for operating in cyberspace. United States Department of Defense. https://csrc.nist.gov/CSRC/media/Projects/ISPAB/documents/DOD-Strategy-for-Operating-in-Cyberspace.pdf
DoD (2018). Joint publication 3-12: Cyberspace operations 9 June 2018. United States Department of Defense. https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/jp3_12.pdf
Egloff, Florian J. og Max Smeets (2021). Publicly attributing cyber attacks: a framework. Journal of Strategic Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2021.1895117
Eriksen, Freja Celine (2022). Cyberangreb mod fjernvarmen er femdoblet siden Ukraine-invasion. Energiwatch.dk, 24. marts. https://energiwatch.dk/Energinyt/Politik___Markeder/article13851044.ece
Gerasimov, Valery (2016). The value of science is in the foresight. Military Review, January-February. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/military-review/archives/english/militaryreview_20160228_art008.pdf
Hern, Alex (2017). WannaCry, Petya, NotPetya: How ransomware hit the big time in 2017. The Guardian, 30. december. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/30/wannacry-petya-notpetya-ransomware
Jakobsson, André Ken (2019). Når Hydra angriber: Hybrid afskrækkelse i gråzonen mellem krig og fred. Center for Militære Studier, Københavns Universitet. https://cms.polsci.ku.dk/publikationer/naar-hydra-angriber-hybrid-afskraekkelse-i-graazonen-mellem-krig-og-fred/download-cms-rapport/CMS_Rapport_2019__2_-_N_r_hydra_angriber_-_hybrid_afskr_kkelse_i_gr_zonen_mellem_krig_og_fred.pdf.
Kongstad, Jesper og Matias Seidelin (2018). Hvad lavede hackerne i det danske elnet? Ifølge USA ønsker Rusland at lamme den europæiske energiforsyning før en mulig konflikt. Jyllands-Posten, 17. juli. https://jyllands-posten.dk/indland/ECE10705311/da-hackerne-brugte-en-schweizerkniv-mod-det-danske-elnet/
Labott, Elise (2022). “We are the first in the world to introduce this new warfare”: Ukraine’s digital battle against Russia. POLITICO, 3. august. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/08/ukraine-digital-minister-crypto-cyber-social-media-00014880
Lewis, James A. (2022) Cyber war and Ukraine. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220616_Lewis_Cyber_War.pdf?S.iEKeom79InugnYWlcZL4r3Ljuq.ash
Maurer, Tim (2015). Cyber proxies and the crisis in Ukraine, pp. 79-86 i Kenneth Geers (red.), Cyber war in perspective: Russian aggression against Ukraine. Tallinn, Estonia: CCDCOE, NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence.
Maurer, Tim (2018). Cyber mercenaries: The state, hackers, and power. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Microsoft (2022). Special report Ukraine: An overview of Russia’s cyberattack activity in Ukraine. https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RE4Vwwd
Miller, Christopher, Mark Scott og Bryan Bender (2022) UkraineX: How Elon Musk’s space satellites changed the war on the ground. POLITICO, 8. juni. https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-ukraine-starlink/
Mortensen, Mikkel Walentin (2022) Ekspert advarer: Stor risiko for angreb mod energisektoren. TV 2 Nyhederne, 26. oktober. https://nyheder.tv2.dk/business/2022-10-24-ekspert-advarer-stor-risiko-for-angreb-mod-energisektoren
Palmer, Danny (2022) Russian hackers’ lack of success against Ukraine shows that strong cyber defences work, says cybersecurity chief. ZDNET, 29. september. https://www.zdnet.com/article/russian-hackers-lack-of-success-against-ukraine-shows-strong-cyber-defences-work-says-cybersecurity-chief/
Park, Donghui og Michael Walstrom (2017). Cyberattack on critical infrastructure: Russia and the Ukrainian power grid attacks. The Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, 11. oktober. https://jsis.washington.edu/news/cyberattack-critical-infrastructure-russia-ukrainian-power-grid-attacks/
Prucková, Michaela (2022). Cyber attacks and Article 5: A note on a blurry but consistent position of NATO. The NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence. https://ccdcoe.org/library/publications/cyber-attacks-and-article-5-a-note-on-a-blurry-but-consistent-position-of-nato/
Przetacznik, Jakub og Simona Tarpova (2022). Russia’s war on Ukraine: Timeline of cyber-attacks. European Parliamentary Research Service. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2022/733549/EPRS_BRI(2022)733549_EN.pdf
Renz, Bettina og Hanna Smith (2016). Russia and hybrid warfare: Going beyond the label. Aleksanteri Papers. https://helda.helsinki.fi/bitstream/handle/10138/175291/renz_smith_russia_and_hybrid_warfare.pdf
Shea, Jamie (2017). How is NATO meeting the challenge of cyberspace? PRISM 7 (2): 11. https://cco.ndu.edu/PRISM-7-2/Article/1401835/how-is-nato-meeting-the-challenge-of-cyberspace/
Soesanto, Stefan (2022). The IT army of Ukraine: Structure, tasking, and ecosystem. Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/552293
Stubss, Jack og Christopher Bing (2019). Hacking the hackers: Russian group hijacked Iranian spying operation, officials say. Reuters, 21. oktober. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-russia-cyber-idUKKBN1X00AX
Tsagourias, Nicholas og Michael Farrell (2020). Cyber attribution: Technical and legal approaches and challenges. European Journal of International Law 31 (3): 941–967. https://doi.org/10.1093/ejil/chaa057
Voitovych, Olga og Alex Hardie (2022). Ukrainian PM calls for 25% cut in electricity use during peak hours to avoid outages. CNN, 12. oktober. https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/12/europe/ukraine-electricity-outages-intl/index.html
Voo, Julia, Irfan Hemani, og Daniel Cassidy (2022). National cyber power index 2022. BELFER Center for Science and International Affairs. https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/CyberProject_National%20Cyber%20Power%20Index%202022_v3_220922.pdf
