Demokrati og borgerkrig
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v48i1.131420Abstract
Prominente studier af sammenhængen mellem demokrati og borgerkrig har hævdet, at risikoen for borgerkrigsudbrud er lige så lille for autokratier som for demokratier, og at den er størst for hybridregimer, der befinder sig i midten af det politiske regimespektrum. Vi genanalyserer sammenhængen mellem demokrati og borgerkrigsudbrud ved hjælp af Lexical Index of Electoral Democracy (LIED). Dette nye demokratimål gør os i stand til samtidigt at skelne mellem niveauer af elektoralt demokrati og distinkte regimetyper. I modsætning til tidligere studier viser vores globale statistiske analyse, at hybridregimer ikke udviser den største risiko for borgerkrigsudbrud. Det er snarere rene autokratier – forstået som politiske regimer, hvor der ikke afholdes nationale valg – der er mest udsatte for borgerkrigsudbrud, mens elektorale demokratier, som er karakteriseret ved konkurrencefyldte og inklusive valg, har den mindste risiko.
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