Hvordan reagerer vælgerne på velfærdsreformer?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v48i3.131393Resumé
I velfærdsstatslitteraturen diskuteres det, om reformer påvirker opbakningen til den siddende regering. Vi har indsamlet årligt data på velfærdsreformer af pensions- og arbejdsløshedsområderne og meningsmålinger i Storbritannien helt tilbage til 1946. Det giver os mulighed for at teste statistisk, hvorvidt velfærdsreformer påvirker regeringens folkelige opbakning. Det viser sig, at det gør de. Nedskæringer fører til lavere støtte, men ekspansion fører til højere støtte. Ikke mindst det sidste er interessant, fordi man i litteraturen ofte fokuserer på nedskæringer. Vores analyse tyder på, at der er et næsten symmetrisk forhold, således at effekten af nedskæringer og ekspansion er nogenlunde lige stor, men altså i forskellige retninger.
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