Små stater i den perfekte storm: krisehåndtering og økonomisk troværdighed i Irlands og Islands finansielle kriser
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v48i3.131391Resumé
Til trods for at Irland og Island siden 2008 har gennemlevet nogle af historiens største finansielle og økonomiske kriser, nyder de to små åbne økonomier nu relativt høje vækstrater og lav arbejdsløshed og anses som succeshistorier. I begge lande har krisehåndteringen haft fokus på at genoprette internationale kapitalmarkeders tillid til de to økonomier, men hvor Island har kompenseret befolkningen gennem en socialt afbalanceret sparepolitik og gældseftergivelse, har Irlands sparepolitik fulgt en mere ortodoks europæisk tilgang med betydelige ulighedsskabende effekter. Islands heterodokse tilgang var mulig gennem kapitalkontrol og en devaluering af valutaen, hvorimod Irland hverken kunne devaluere eller nedskrive bankernes gæld. Artiklen viser, hvordan afhængigheden af internationale kapitalmarkeder og opgivelsen af monetær politik begrænser den fleksibilitet, små stater tidligere har nydt, og øger afhængigheden af heldige udviklinger i verdensøkonomien.
Referencer
Baldursson, Fridrik M. og Richard Portes (2013). Gambling for resurrection in Iceland: the rise and fall of the banks. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9664. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research
Baldursson, Fridrik M. og Richard Portes (2014). Capital controls and the resolution of failed cross-border banks: the case of Iceland. Capital Markets Law Journal 9 (1): 40-54.
Banking Crisis Inquiry (2016). Report of the Joint Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis. Dublin: Houses of the Oireachtas.
Bastasin, Carlo (2013) Saving Europe: Anatomy of a Dream. Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press.
Benediktsdottir, Sigridur, Jon Danielsson og Gylfi Zoega (2011). Lessons from a collapse of a financial system. Economic Policy, April, 183-231.
Blyth, Mark (2002). Great Transformations: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Blyth, Mark (2013). Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea. New York: Oxford University Press.
Brazys, Samuel og Aidan Regan (2015). These little PIIGS went to market: enterprise policy and divergent recovery in European periphery. UCD Geary WP2015/17.Dublin: University College Dublin.
Brazys, Samuel og Niamh Hardiman (2015). From ”Tigers” to ”PIIGS”: Ireland and the use of heuristics in comparative political economy. European Journal of Political Research 54: 23-42.
Brooks, Sarah M., Raphael Cunha og Layna Mosley (2015). Categories, creditworthiness, and contagion: How investors’ shortcuts affect sovereign debt markets. Internaitonal Studies Quarterly 59: 587-601.
Broome, Andre (2008). The importance of being earnest: the IMF as a reputational intermediary. New Political Economy 13 (2): 125-151.
Broome, Andre (2011). Negotiating crisis: the IMF and disaster capitalism in small states. The Round Table 100 (413): 155-167.
Broome, Andre (2015). Back to Basics: the great recession and the narrowing of IMF policy advice. Governance 28 (2): 147-165.
Campbell, John L. og John A. Hall (2015). Small states, nationalism and institutional capacities: an explanation of the difference in response of Ireland and Denmark to the financial crisis. European Journal of Sociology 56 (1): 143-174.
Central Bank of Ireland (2011). The Financial Measures Programme Report. Dublin: Central Bank of Ireland.
De Grauwe, Paul og Yuemei Ji (2013). Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implications. VoxEU.org, 21. februar, http://www.voxeu.org/article/panic-driven-austerity-eurozone-and-its-implications
Dellepiane, Sebastian og Niamh Hardiman (2015). The politics of fiscal effort in Spain and Ireland: market credibility versus political legitimacy, i Georgios Karyotis og Roman Gerodimos (red.) The Politics of Extreme Austerity: Greece in the Eurozone Crisis. Palgrave MacMillan.
DG ECFIN (2011). The Economic Adjustment Programme for Ireland Spring 2011 Review. Brussels, Belgium: European Commission
Donovan, Donal og Antoin E. Murphy (2013). The Fall of the Celtic Tiger: Irland and the Euro Debt Crisis, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Dukelow, Fiona (2015). ”Pushing against an open door”: Reinforcing the neo-liberal policy paradigm in Ireland and the impact of EU intrusion. Comparative European Politics 13 (1): 93-111.
ECB (2010a). Letter to Minister of Finance Brian Lenihan, 15 October, Frankfurt: European Central Bank. http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/html/irish-letters.en.html (20. juni 2016).
ECB (2010b). Letter to Minister of Finance Brian Lenihan”, 19. November, Frankfurt: European Central Bank. http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/html/irish-letters.en.html (20. juni 2016).
Eichengreen, Barry (2015). The Irish crisis and the EU from a distance. Paper, CBI-CEPR-IMF Conference Ireland – Lessons from its Recovery from the Bank-Sovereign Loop, 19 January, Dublin.
Financial Times (2013). S&P warns Iceland over debt write-off plan, 26. juli.
Financial Times (2015). Investors snap up Icelandic bonds, 3. marts.
FitzGerald, John (2012). Restoring credibility in policy-making in Ireland. Public Money & Management 32 (1): 27-34.
FME (2015). Annual Report of the Financial Supervisory Authority. Reykjavik: Financial Supervisory Authority
Gros, D. (2012). On the stability of public debt in a monetary union. Journal of Common Market Studies 50 (2): 36-48.
Gudmundsson, Már (2016). Lifting Capital Controls in Iceland. Speech by Governor of the Central Bank of Iceland Már Gudmundsson at a meeting organized by the European Economics and Financial Centre. London: Bank of International Settlements.
Hardie, Ian (2011). How much can governments borrow? Financialization and emerging markets government borrowing capacity. Review of International Political Economy 18 (2): 141-167.
Helleiner, Eric (1994). States and the Reemergence of Global Finance. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Honohan, Patrick (2012). Recapitalisation of failed banks: some lessons from the Irish experience. Presentation at the 44th Annual Money, Macro and Finance Conference, Trinity College, Dublin, 7. september.
IMF (2008). IMF Executive Board approves US$2.1 billion stand-by arrangement for Iceland. Press Release no. 8/296. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
IMF (2009). Iceland: Staff Report for First Review. IMF Country Report no. 09/306, Washington, DC: The International Monetary Fund.
IMF (2010a) Iceland: Staff Report for Second Review. IMF Country Report no. 10/95, Washington, DC: The International Monetary Fund.
IMF (2010b). IMF approves €22.5 billion loan for Ireland. IMF Survey Magazine. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/CAR121610A.htm (20. juni 2016).
IMF (2015a). Ireland: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2010 Extended Arrangement. Washington, DC: The International Monetary Fund.
IMF (2015b). 2014 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions. Washington, DC: The International Monetary Fund.
Jännäri, Karlo (2009). Report on Banking Regulation and Supervision in Iceland: Past Present and Future. Reykjavik, Prime Minister’s Office,
Katzenstein, Peter J. (1985). Small States in World Markets: Industrial Policy in Europe. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Katzenstein, Peter J. (2003). Small states and small states revisited. New Political Economy 8 (1): 9-30.
Keane, Claire, Tim Callen, Michael Savage, John R. Walsh og Brian Colgan (2015). Distributional impact of tax, welfare and public service pay policies: budget 2015 and budgets 2009-2015. ESRI Special Article.
Laeven, Luc og Fabián Valencia (2012). Systemic banking crises database: an update. IMF Working Paper 12/163. Washington, DC: The International Monetary Fund.
Mair, Peter (2013). Smaghi versus the parties: representative government and institutional constraint, pp. 143-168 i Armin Schäfer og Wolfgang Streeck (red.), Politics in the Age of Austerity. Cambridge: Polity Press.
Matthiasson, Thorolfur og Sigrun Davidsdottir (2013). Five years on: myths and lessons from post-collapse Iceland – and the Eurozone debt crisis seen from the North. Institute of Economic Studies Working Paper Series W13:09. Reykjavik: University of Iceland.
Moody’s (2015). Moody’s upgrades Iceland’s sovereign rating to BAA2; outlook stable. Global Credit Research, 25. juni.
Mosley, Layna (2003). Global Capital and National Governments. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Ó’Riain, Seán (2014). The Rise and Fall of Ireland’s Celtic Tiger: Liberalism, Boom and Bust. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
OECD (2015). Economic Survey: Iceland 2015. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Ólafsson, Stefán (2011). Iceland’s financial crisis and level of living consequences. Social Research Centre Working Paper no. 3:2011. Reykjavik: University of Iceland.
Pisani-Ferry, Jean, André Sapir og Guntram B. Wolff (2013) EU-IMF Assistance to Euro-area Countries: an Early Assessment. Bruxelles: Bruegel.
Rommerskirchen, Charlotte (2015). Debt and punishment: market discipline in the Eurozone. New Political Economy 20 (5): 752-782.
S&P (2014). Republic of Iceland outlook revised to stable frem negative on receding fiscal risk; ”BBB-/A-3” ratings affirmed. Ratings Direct, 24. januar. http://www.cb.is/library/Skraarsafn---EN/Government-debt-management/RatingsDirect_Research%20Update_1248240_Jan-24-2014_02_02.pdf.
Schwartz, Herman (2001). The Danish ‘miracle’: luck, pluck, or stuck. Comparative Political Studies 24 (2): 131-155.
Schäfer, Armin og Wolfgang Streeck (red.) (2013) Politics in the Age of Austerity. Cambridge: Polity Press.
SIC (2010) Report of the Special Investigation Commission. Reykjavik: Althingi.
Sigurgeirsdóttir, Silla og Robert H. Wade (2015). From control by capital to control of capital: Iceland’s boom and bust, and the IMF’s unorthodox rescue package. Review of International Political Economy 22 (1): 103-133.
Streeck, Wolfgang (2014). Buying Time: The Delayed Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. London: Verso.
Thorhallsson, Baldur og Anders Wivel (2006). Small states in the European Union: What do we know and what would we like to know. Cambridge Review of International Affairs 19 (4): 651-668.
Tomz, Michael (2007). Reputation and International Cooperation: Sovereign Debt Across Three Centuries. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Wade, Robert H. og Silla Sigursgeirsdottir (2012). Iceland’s rise, fall, stabilisation and beyond. Cambridge Journal of Economics 36: 127-144.
Downloads
Publiceret
Citation/Eksport
Nummer
Sektion
Licens
LicensOphavsretten tilhører Politica. Materialet må ikke bruges eller distribueres i kommercielt øjemed.