Keywords
Østersøen
DMI
How to Cite
Abstract
The October 2023 storm surge gave Denmark the highest water level in the Baltic Sea in over 100 years. The article dives into the oceanographic and meteorological mechanisms behind the event. They can be described in three steps, which combined accumulated wind-driven water mass and strong easterly winds. With a physical foundation in the Navier-Stokes, continuity, and thermodynamic equations, the authors describe the Danish Meteorological Institute's modern model complex for forecasting: high-resolution atmosphere and ocean models, nesting techniques, and ensemble runs. The article shows how small variations in wind and geography can lead to large differences in storm surge development. On-duty meteorologists use model forecasts and observations of water levels around Denmark to issue warnings. The historic storm surge of 1872 is brought in as a mirror and a warning of what can happen in a warmer climate, where 20-year events will occur at intervals of just a few years. A strong example of applied physics in the service of society.
References
[1] J. She, M.A.D. Larsen, J.W. Nielsen, T.S. Rasmussen, J. Murawski, V. Frishfeld og O.K. Leth (2024) "Fra operationel oceanografi til digital oceanografi - et modelleringsperspektiv", Vand og Jord, bind 31, nr. 2, side 78-81, http://www.vandogjord.dk/.
[2] DMI-havmodeller, https://ocean.dmi.dk/models/index.php.
[3] E. Kaas (2024) "Multiplicity of Time Scales in Climate and the Earth System", side 3-52 i B. Booß-Bavnbek, J.H. Christensen, K. Richardson og O.V. Codina "Multiplicity of Time Scales in Complex Systems", Springer Cham, Schweiz, doi:10.1007/978-3-031-28049-8.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-28049-8
[4] S. Svith og A. Fonseca (2019) "Nyt værktøj skal styrke beredskabets kamp mod oversvømmelser", https://www.dmi.dk/nyheder/2019/nyt-vaerktoej-skal-styrke-beredskabets-kamp-mod-oversvoemmelser.
[5] P. A. Arias m.fl. (2021) "Technical Summary". I "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" [V. Masson-Delmotte m.fl. (red.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK og New York, NY, USA, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002.
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.002
[6] Klimaatlas, www.klimaatlas.dk.
[7] P. Thejll m.fl. (2023) "Methods used in Klimaatlas, the Danish Climate Atlas", DMI Rapport 22-37, ISBN 978-87-7478-736-5, https://download.dmi.dk/Research_Projects/klimaatlas/v2022a/Rapport_22-37.pdf.
[8] E. Andrée, J. Su, M.A.D. Larsen, M. Drews, M. Stendel og K.S. Madsen (2023) "The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea", Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, bind 23, side 1817-1834, doi: 10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023.
Counting from volume 37 (2026 -), articles published are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial CC BY-NC 4.0.
Articles in volume 1-36 (1990 - 2025) are not licensed under Creative Commons. In these volumes, all rights are reserved to the authors of the articles respectively.