Keywords
numeriske metoder
vejrprognose
meteorologi
How to Cite
Abstract
Med en matematisk model over konkurrence mellem tre grupper illustreres, hvordan kaotiske systemer er fundamentalt begrænset i forudsigelighed. Små variationer i startbetingelser eller parametre fører til divergerende løsninger, selv i simple differentialligninger. Artiklen gennemgår numeriske eksempler, hvor systemer med næsten identiske udgangspunkter ender i helt forskellige stabile tilstande. Resultaterne kobles til vejrprognosers begrænsning og viser, hvorfor man i kaotiske systemer må acceptere en fundamental grænse for, hvor langt frem man kan forudsige.
References
Referencer:
[1] M. Feigenbaum (1978) Quantitative universality for a class of nonlinear equations, J. of Stat. Physics, bind 19, side 25-52.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01020332
[2] E. N. Lorenz (1963) The predictability of hydrodynamic flow, Transactions, New York Academy of Science, Serie II, bind 25, side 409.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2164-0947.1963.tb01464.x
[3] A. Wiin Nielsen (1997) Begrænset forudsigelighed I, Vejret, bind 2, side 27-35.
[4] A. Wiin Nielsen (1997) Begrænset forudsigelighed II, Vejret, bind 4, side 11-17.
[5] R. M. May (Editor) (1976) Theoretical Ecology, Principles and Applications, Blackwell Scientific Publications, 317 pp.
[6] R. M. May og W. J. Leonard (1975) Nonlinear aspects of competition between three species, SIAM, Journal of Applied Mathematics, bind 29, side 243-253.
https://doi.org/10.1137/0129022
[7] E. Beltrami (1987) Mathematics for dynamic modeling, Academic Press, Inc., 277 pp.
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-085555-1.50005-3
[8] H. Poincaré (1893) Les Méthodes nouvelle de la mécanique cleste, Paris, Gauthiers-Villar.
[9] H. Poincaré (1912) Science et Méthode, Paris, Flammarion.
[10] P. D. Thompson (1957) Uncertainty of initial State as a factor in the predictability of large scale atmospheric flow patterns, Tellus, bind IX, side 275-295.
Counting from volume 37 (2026 -), articles published are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial CC BY-NC 4.0.
Articles in volume 1-36 (1990 - 2025) are not licensed under Creative Commons. In these volumes, all rights are reserved to the authors of the articles respectively.