De danske husholdninger og stagnationspolitik
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7146/politik.v20i2.27656Resumé
The Danish Economy, measured in terms of real GDP, has not yet recovered to the same level as 2007. The economy initially contracted and has since stagnated with little to no growth in real GDP. This article presents an alternative explanation for this stag-nation, which relies on an analysis inspired by the keynesian economist Josef Steindl. The contribution from Steindl has largely been ignored in the debate, despite its obvious potential. With the use of the theoretical foundation offered by Steindl, the stagnation of the Danish economy can be explained by a combination of the behavior of the house-hold, the investment behavior of firms and the public preoccupation with the fiscal budget. The political consequence of this focus on balancing the budget is also dis-cussed in detail towards the end of this article.Referencer
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Steindl, J. (1982). The Role of Household Saving in the Modern Economy. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, vol. 140, pp. 69-88.
Steindl, J. (2012). Reflections on the Present State of Economics. PSL Quarterly Review, vol. 65(261), pp. 199-212.
Syll, L. (2015). The Bernanke-Summers Imbroglio. [Blog]. Available at:
https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2015/04/10/the-bernanke-summers-imbroglio/
Van Treeck, T. (2012). Did Inequality Cause the US Financial Crisis?, Working Paper 2012, Düsseldorf, IMK.
Veblen, T. (2007 [1899]). The Theory of the Leisure Class, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
Andersen, T. and Malchow-Møller, N. (2015b). Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Performance since the Great Recession. Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 67(3), pp. 598-613.
Bernanke, B. (2015). Why are interest rates so low, part 3: The Global Savings Glut.[blog]. Brookings Institution. Available at:
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2015/04/01-why-interest-rates-low-global-savings-glut
Byrialsen, M. (2015). Makroøkonomisk modeller og danskernes adfærd – en post-keynesiansk analyse, Aalborg Universitetsforlag, Aalborg Universitet.
Cynamon, B. Z. and Fazzari, S. (2013). The End of a Consumer Age. In: B. Cynamon, S. Fazzari and M. Setterfield, M., ed., After the Great Recession: Keynesian Perspectives on Prospects for Recovery and Growth. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Danmarks Nationalbank. (2013). Kvartalsoversigt, 2. Kvartal, del 2. København: Danmarks Nationalbank .
Danske Bank. (2014). Danske Banks ØMU-måling – ”Nej”-sidens forspring skrumpet en smule, Macro Research, Investeringsanalyse – Generelle markedsforhold, 24. marts 2014, København: Danske Bank.
Dolls, M., Fuest, C. and Peichl, A. (2012). Automatic stabilization and discretionary fiscal policy in the financial crisis’. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, vol. 1(4), pp. 1-19.
Duesenberry, J. S. (1967 [1949]). Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behaviors, 1st Published as Galaxy Book 1967, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
Dutt, A. (2006). Maturity, Stagnation and Consumer debt: A Steindlian Approach. Metroeconomica, vol. 57(3), pp. 339-364.
Finansministeriet. (2010). Aftale mellem regeringen og Dansk Folkeparti om genopretning af dansk økonomi. København: Finansministeriet.
Finansredegørelsen. (2014): Finansredegørelsen (2014), København: Finansministeriet.
Finansrådet. (2007). Lån til forbrug. [pdf] Available at:
http://www.finansraadet.dk/Media/dokumenter/politik/analyser/lån_til_forbrug_21-12-2007%20(pdf).pdf .
Frank, R. (1989). Frames of Reference and the Quality of Life. The American Economic Review, vol. 79(2), pp. 80-85.
Frank, R. (1997). The Frame of Reference as a Public Good’, Economical Journal, vol. 107, pp. 1832-47.
Frank, R., Levine, A. and Dijk, O. (2010). Expenditure Cascades, Working Paper 2010.
Goda, T. (2013). The role of Income Inequality in Crisis Theories and in the Subprime Crisis, Working Paper 2013, PKSG.
Godley, W. (2000). Seven Unsustainable Processes:Medium-Term Prospects and Policies for the United States and the World, Strategic Analysis. Annandale-On-Hudson, N.Y.: The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
Hansen, A. (1939). Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth. The American Economic Review, vol. 29(1), pp. 1-15.
Hein, E. (2014). Distribution and Growth after Keynes – A Post-Keynesian Guide, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Hein, E. (2015). Secular Stagnation or Stagnation Policy? Steindl after Summers, Working Paper No. 846, Annandale-On-Hudson, N.Y.:Levy Institute of Bard College, Oktober 2015
IMF. (2012). Dealing with Household Debt, Chapter 3 I World Economic Outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain, Washington DC, International Monetary Fund.
Keynes, J. M. (1997 [1936]). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, London, Prometheus Books.
Krugman, P. (2013). Secular Stagnation, Coalmines, Bubbles, and Larry Summers. [Blog]. Available at: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/secular-stagnation-coalmines-bubbles-and-larry-summers/
OECD. (2011). Divided We Stand - Why Inequality Keeps Rising. [Pdf].
Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/the-causes-of-growing-inequalities-in-oecd-countries_9789264119536-en
Olesen, J. (2008). En forbrugsrelation for husholdningerne, København: Danmarks Nationalbank Working Paper 2008:51
Poppe, C. and Jakobsen, T. (2009). Lånefest? Betydningen af kreditfinansieret forbrug blandt udvalgte grupper i den danske middelklasse, Center for kreditret og kapitalmarkedsret, Handelshøjskolen i København: Thomson Reuters 2009.
Steindl, J. (1952). The Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism. Oxford, Basil: Blackwell.
Steindl, J. (1979). Stagnation Theory and Stagnation Policy. Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 3, pp. 1-14
Steindl, J. (1982). The Role of Household Saving in the Modern Economy. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, vol. 140, pp. 69-88.
Steindl, J. (2012). Reflections on the Present State of Economics. PSL Quarterly Review, vol. 65(261), pp. 199-212.
Syll, L. (2015). The Bernanke-Summers Imbroglio. [Blog]. Available at:
https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2015/04/10/the-bernanke-summers-imbroglio/
Van Treeck, T. (2012). Did Inequality Cause the US Financial Crisis?, Working Paper 2012, Düsseldorf, IMK.
Veblen, T. (2007 [1899]). The Theory of the Leisure Class, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
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Madsen, M. . O., & Randrup Byrialsen, M. (2017). De danske husholdninger og stagnationspolitik. Politik, 20(2). https://doi.org/10.7146/politik.v20i2.27656
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