Kommunalreformens betydning for den kommunale valgdeltagelse

Resumé

What is the impact of the Danish municipal reform on turnout at the municipal elections? In the reform 275 municipalities merged into only 98, and there was thus widespread concern that turnout would be depressed as the average municipal population size increased. This concern seemed even more important after turnout dropped about 4 percentage points in the second election following the reform. We find a strong partial correlation between municipal population size and turnout. An individual level regression indicates that after the reform, the amalgamating municipalities had a lower turnout than their non-amalgamating peers. A dynamic regression fails to show any impact of the reform from 1997 to 2009. Nevertheless, an intriguing pattern is found, as the effect of the amalgamation municipalities actually seems to have raised their turnout in the first election following the reform, while it was depressed in the subsequent election. Finally, we argue that should the municipal reform might have had some impact, it is not likely the sole explanation for the dramatic decline in turnout from 2005 to 2009.