Hvordan kan miljø- og klimahensyn integreres i den økonomiske politik?

  • Rasmus Kehlet Berg
  • Janek Bligaard Eskildsen
  • Jens Villiam Hoff
  • Jette Bredahl Jacobsen
  • Ole Gravgaard Pedersen
  • Martin Møller Boje Rasmussen
  • Peter Philip Stephensen
  • Peter Birch Sørensen
Nøgleord: Økonomisk politik, Forskningsprojekt, Danmarks grønne BNP, Miljø- og klimaøkonomisk model, Samtænkning

Resumé

Through decades, the natural sciences have documented some troubling links between the growing economy and damages to the environment, most prominent of which are global warming and the loss of biodiversity. Recent years have however shown that the road from identifying the problems to action is slow and complicated to navigate: The goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions does not stand alone; rather it is weighed against numerous other policy objectives. This paper first outlines a way of measuring the links between economic activity and the environment: The Green GDP. This measure attempts to measure the environmental damages in the same metric as other economic activity, thus informing us on whether or not economic growth comes at the expense of the environment. Next, the paper introduces a research project aimed at developing the GREEN REFORM model that can simulate the environmental effects of economic policy as well as the impact of environmental policy on the economy. While the Green GDP is an indication of the environmental costs of current and past economic activity, the GREEN REFORM model can be used for evaluation of future scenarios and policy interventions. Finally, the paper presents an analysis of the political barriers to adopting the above-mentioned tools in decision-making in a Danish context. The paper argues that while there is some demand for the tools, there is a potential for significant opposition in the form of political-economy constraints.

Referencer

Agimass, F., Lundhede, T., Panduro, T., Jacobsen, J.B. (2018). The choice of forest site for recreation: A revealed preference analysis using spatial data. Ecosystem Services, årg. 31, part C, s. 445-454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.11.016
Bakhtiari, F., Jacobsen, J.B., Thorsen, B.J., Lundhede, T.H., Strange, N., Boman, M., (2018). Disentangling distance and country effects on the value of conservation across national borders. Ecological Economics, årg. 147, s. 11-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.12.019
Bateman, I., Harwood, A, Mace, G.M., Watson, R.T., Abson, D.J., Andrews, B., Binner, A., Crowe, A., Day, B.H., Dugdale, S., Fezzi, C., Foden, J., Hadley, D., Haines-Young, R., Hulme, M., Kontoleon, A., Lovett, A. A.; Munday, P., Pascual, U., Paterson, J., Perino, G., Sen, A., Siriwardena, G., van Soest, D., Termansen, M. (2013). Bringing Ecosystem Services into Economic Decision-Making: Land Use in the United Kingdom. Science, årg. 341(6141), s. 45-50. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1234379
Béland, D., & Cox, R. H. (2010). Ideas and politics in social science research. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199736430.001.0001
Berg, R. & Eskildsen J. (2019). Modelling the energy sector in a computable general equilibrium framework: A new approach to integrated bottom-up and top-down modelling.
Blyth, M. (2002). Great transformations: Economic ideas and institutional change in the twentieth century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139087230
Boulanger, P.M. (2007). Political uses of social indicators: overview and application to sustainable development indicators. International Journal of Sustainable Development, årg. 10(1-2), s. 14-32. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSD.2007.014411
Bue-Bjørner, T., Termansen, M. (2014). Brugsværdier af naturområder i Danmark. Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift, årg. 152, s. 1-23.
Campbell, J.L. & Pedersen, O.K. (2001). The rise of neoliberalism and institutional analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592703670155
Campbell, J.L. (2004). Institutional change and globalization. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Campbell, J.L., & Pedersen, O.K. (2014). The national origins of policy ideas: Knowledge regimes in the United States, France, Germany, and Denmark. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Campbell, D., Vedel, S.E., Thorsen, B.J., Jacobsen, J.B. (2014). Heterogeneity in the WTP for recreational access – distributional aspects. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, årg. 57(8), s. 1200-1219. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2013.793173
Crutzen, P.J. (2002). Geology of mankind. Nature, årg. 415(23), s. 23-23. https://doi.org/10.1038/415023a
Daly, Herman E. and Joshua Farley (2011). Ecological Economics, Second Edition. Island Press.
Dasgupta, P. & Mäler, K.-G. (2000). Net National Product, wealth, and social well-being. Environment and Development Economics, årg. 5(1), s. 69-93. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X00000061
De Økonomiske Råd (2017). Økonomi og Miljø 2017. Rapport til Det Miljøøkonomiske Råd.
Delarue, E, & J. Morris (2015). Renewables Intermittency: Operational Limits and Im-plications for Long-Term Energy System Models. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report No. 277, March 2015.
Dubgaard, A. og Ladenburg, J. (2007). Værdisætning af miljøgoder. I: Kirsten Halsnæs, Peder Andersen og Anders Larsen, red., Miljøvurdering på økonomisk vis. Jurist- og Økonomforbundets Forlag.
Garnåsjordet, P. A., Aslaksen, I., Giampietro, M., Funtowicz, S., & Ericson, T. (2012). Sustainable development indicators: from statistics to policy. Environmental Policy and Governance, årg. 22(5), s. 322-336. https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.1597
Gillingham, K. & J.H. Stock (2018). The cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, årg. 32, s. 53-72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.042
Gravgaard Pedersen, O. (2013). Grønne nationalregnskaber og det grønne BNP: metoder og muligheder. Danmarks Statistik.
Hamilton, K. (1994). Green adjustments to GDP. Resources Policy, årg. 20, s. 155-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/0301-4207(94)90048-5
Hartwick, J. (1990). Natural resources, national accounting and economic depreciation. Journal of Public Economics, årg. 43(3), s. 291-304. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(90)90002-Y
Hartwick, J. (1994). National wealth and Net National Product. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, årg. 96(2), s. 253-256. https://doi.org/10.2307/3440602
Hezri, A. A., & Dovers, S. R. (2006). Sustainability indicators, policy and governance: Issues for ecological economics. Ecological Economics, årg. 60(1), s. 86-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.11.019
Jacobsen, J.B., Boiesen, J.H., Thorsen B.J., Strange, N. (2008). What’s in a name? The use of quantitative measures versus ‘Iconised’ species when valuing biodiversity. Environmental and Resource Economics, årg. 39(3), årg. 247-263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-007-9107-6
Joskow, P.L. (2011). Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies. American Economic Review, årg. 101(3), s. 238-241. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.3.238
Klimarådet (2018). Status for Danmarks klimamålsætninger og –forpligtelser 2018. København, november 2018.
Levitt, C.J., M.S. Pedersen & A. Sørensen. (2015). Examining the efforts of a small, open economy to reduce carbon emissions: The case of Denmark. Ecological Economics, årg. 119, s. 94-106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.08.002
Mäler, K.-G. (1991). National accounts and environmental resources. Environmental and Resource Economics, årg. 1, s. 1-15.
Mota, R.P., Domingos, T., Martins, V. (2010). Analysis of genuine saving and potential green net national income: Portugal, 1990–2005. Ecological Economics, årg. 69(10), 1934–1942. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.04.026
Neumayer, E. (2013). Weak versus Strong Sustainability – Exploring the Limits of Two Opposing Paradigms. Fourth Edition. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK and Northhampton, MA, USA. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781007082
Oosterhuis, F. et al. (2016). From Statistics to Policy: the Development and application of environmental statistics and environmental accounts in the Netherlands, Policy Study (PBL publication number 2433 ed.). The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
Panduro, T.E., Jensen, C.U., Lundhede, T.H., von Graevenitz, K., Thorsen, B.J. (2018). Eliciting preferences for urban parks. Regional Science and Urban Economics, årg. 73, s. 127-142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.09.001
Pezzey, J.C.V., Hanley, N., Turner, K., Tinch, D. (2006). Comparing augmented sustainability measures for Scotland: Is there a mismatch? Ecological Economics, årg. 57(1), s. 60–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.03.006
Ruddiman, W.F. (2013). The Anthropocene. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, årg. 41, s. 45-68. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-050212-123944
Schandl, H. et al. (2017). Global material flows and productivity – Forty years of evidence. Journal of Industrial Ecology, årg. 22(4), s. 827-838. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12626
Schmidt, V. A. (2008). Discursive institutionalism: The explanatory power of ideas and discourse. Annual Review of Political Science, årg. 11, s. 303-326. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060606.135342
Steffen, W. et al. (2018). Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, årg. 115(33), s. 8252-8259. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115
Stern, D.I. (1997). Limits to substitution and irreversibility in production and consumption: A neoclassical interpretation of ecological economics. Ecological Economics, årg. 21, s. 197-215. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(96)00103-6
Sørensen, P.B. (2019a). Environmental, energy, and climate policy. I: P.M. Christiansen, J. Elklit & P. Nedergaard, red., Oxford Handbook of Danish Politics, forthcoming on Oxford University Press.
Sørensen, Peter Birch (2019b). A theoretical framework for estimating the Green Net National Product in a small open economy. Working Paper. Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen.
TEEB (2010). The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: ecological and economic foundation. Edited by P. Kumar. London og Washington: Earthscan.
Transportministeriet (2015). Manual for samfundsøkonomisk analyse på transportområdet – Anvendt metode og praksis i Transportministeriet. Marts 2015.
Publiceret
2019-12-09
Citation/Eksport
Berg, R., Eskildsen, J., Hoff, J., Jacobsen, J., Pedersen, O., Rasmussen, M., Stephensen, P., & Sørensen, P. (2019). Hvordan kan miljø- og klimahensyn integreres i den økonomiske politik?. Politik, 22(3). https://doi.org/10.7146/politik.v22i3.117728