Guttesen, R., Hansen, Fr., Nielsen, B. 1976: Regional Development in Denmark with Special Reference to the Postwar Period. Geografisk Tidsskrift 75: 74-87. København, June l, 1976.

The paper gives a description of the development of regional socio-economic inequalities in Denmark, and especially comments the situation and the changes in these inequalities in the 1960e5.

M.Sc. Rolf Guttesen, M.Sc. Frank Hansen, M.Sc. Bue Nielsen.
Department of Geography, University of Copenhagen, Haraldsgade
68, DK-2100 København Ø.

The vigorous development of the industry in Denmark during the sixties, mainly based upon growth in labourproductivity as a result of new productive forces, meant a definite transition from a country dominated by agriculture to a country dominated by industry. This development was accompanied by a heavy reduction in number of independent enterprises and an increase of wage labour.

These changes resulted in some changes in the geographical pattern of production and the regional division of labour. In spite of this development the regional differences as to labour and income possibilities were maintained. The purpose of this article is to delineate the structure development during the sixties and the inequal regional situation as it appeared around 1970. The economic and social inequality between the regions in Denmark was largely determined by the development within the capitalistic mode of production. This is the background followed by some comments and critics of theories advanced by different Marxist schools as to the recent regional development.

The establishment of Capitalism in Denmark

Though tendencies towards an industrial production can be found in Denmark as early as in the 17th and the 18th century, the breakthrough of capitalism took place much later. Relations in the sphere of circulation, the commerce, was at its early stage dominated by commodity-money relations. A long period of accumulation of merchants' and commercial capital was needed — together with growth in population and changes in the agricultural sector that released labour-power — before

the objective conditions were present for capitalistic production relations to interfere into the sphere of production. The early attempts after 1840 were directed towards the home market and mainly based on imported raw materials such as cotton, tobacco etc. Contrary to earlier attempts, these were made without direct support or interference from the State, but often indirectly through contracts as to delivery and payment in advance together with different forms of protection against foreign competition by customs, import regulations and export prohibition as to potential raw materials.

Most of these interprises were organized as joint stock companies which saw a boom during this period. Willerslev (1952) called it a mania of share issuing. It abated rather quickly, however, and only a few joint stock companies were established during the 1850s and 1860s.

The ascending bourgeoisie class in the cities, particularly in Copenhagen, went into alliance with wealthy peasants in the country, and after the war against Schleswig-Holstein, which threatened to separate, the autocratic (absolutist) government was enforced to withdraw. The constitution of 1849 introduced a bourgeois form of government, and a law prescribing freedom of trade was passed in 1857.

After all it is questionable whether the previous system had such a restrictive character as expressed in many tests. The Chancellery, government department, issued e.g. licences regardless of the guilds to new establishments following a fixed formal procedure, the so-called Schemata, A. Nielsen (1944).

Agriculture

Throughout the period 1830-70 agriculture made progress.Productivity and wage incomes were increasing and had a promoting effect on the industry that directed towards the home market. The production increased by 80% whereas the area was extended by 20% (L. Jørberg 1970). The prices of animal products were favourable; thus prices of cattle, meat and diary products raised by two-thirds, pigs even by 150%, whereas prices of cereal crops were declining, apart from the years of the Crimean War (1854/55). A change from cereal to animal production was thus promoted. During the period 1870-1905 (L. Jørberg 1970) the total output of agriculturalproducts increased by 140%, the cereal production

only by 20%. Large cargoes of cereals from the American prairies and Russia pressed the prices of this commodity, while the demand for bacon on the English market resulted in rising prices.

The Industrial Revolution

The already mentioned industrial production was initiated abt. 1840, but it was not until 1870 that the development in this sector was accellerating. Many authors date the industrial revolution to 1890, (V. Dybdal 1965). For many years, however, Denmark remained a country with a substantial agricultural sector.

The migration from land to town was to some degree delayed by the acts of parcelling from 1899 and 1919 that resulted in the establishment of almost 25.000 smallholdings. Still, in 1930, there were more people employed in agriculture (incl. fisheries and market-gardening) than in craft and industry, 1.11 mill against 1.02 mill. If number of workers and functionaries in the industrial sector is compared with the number employed in agriculture, the point of intersection is found as late as 1958, fig. 1. At the early industrial stage the largest branches were textile-, glove-, and tobacco manufacturing followed by the branches cement, tiles, milling, brewery, fertilizer and sugar manufacturing.

Regional distribution

The distribution of the population in 1850 (fig. 2) reflects to a high degree the distribution and quality of the most important means of production in those days, the soil. The highest population density is found on Sjælland, Fyn and other islands, in eastern Jutland and as well as in the areas Salling, Mors and southern Thy. Also some minor islands appear with remarkable high population density: Als, Ærø, Langeland, Samsø, Møen, islands for which shipping was still relatively important at that time. Furthermore Copenhagen and surroundings, together with a belt towards Helsingør to the North, appears as a

coherent area with high population density. Thus the distribution of population in the year of 1850 was clearly very uneven with the centre of gravity displaced eastwards.

During the period 1860-80 the population growth was highest in Copenhagen and the bigger provincial towns, while the country parishes had a growth rate below the mean for the whole country. 1880-1901 the difference between the growth rate for towns and country parishes was even greater, and 1901-1921 saw a negative growth rate for the country parishes except for the new railway station towns.

As mentioned, it is impossible to relate the breakthrough of capitalism to one single event, but it was clearly the development of the capitalist mode of production that caused the high growth rate for Copenhagen in relation to the rest of the country. The free mobility of labour power and capital had the effect that the capital was localized where profits were the highest. The market in the Copenhagen area for industrially produced consumer goods was evidently greater than anywhere else in Denmark. Not only as to population, Copenhagen was the biggest, but it was the centre of foreign trade and the domicile of the ground-rent consuming classes. That is why money economy was earlier and to a much higher degree adopted in Copenhagen with the effect that this area was the most profitable localization for many industrial establishments. The NE-Sjælland, which in 1870 had 19% of the population, received 51% of the growth in industry and craft employment in the initial industrial period 1870-90.

Furthermore the development in railway construction from 1860 increased the possibilities for the most effectively producing establishments to widen their marketing districts at the expence of the less effectively producing establishment. This promoted the relocalization of industry to Copenhagen and major provincial towns. Danish industry as a whole was favoured by the cease of competition from the more developed industry in Holstein in 1864, although this fact is often exaggerated.

All these factors brought about the relatively intense growth in Copenhagen and the agriculturally more developed parts of Denmark (Fyn, eastern Jylland) where commercial capital was invested in industries attached to agricultural raw materials.

The development in western Jylland was delayed in spite of a considerable reclamation of heathland during the last decades of the century. A stagnation was experienced in southern and western Sjælland, where handicraft and small-scale industry was exposed to competition from Copenhagen and certain minor islands and shipping towns (Lolland, Falster, Bornholm, the islands south of Fyn) whose trade suffered from the competition from railways.

World War I and the interwar period

World War I was a prosperous period for both agriculture and industry. Various regulations were introduced and import of raw materials was difficult, but prices were high because of lack of competition and the great demand. Especially the shipping trade was pushed forward. The war inflation and low real wages for the workers radicalised the working class with hard labour conflicts as the result. The impression of the violent events elsewhere in Europe, as well as the development at home, made it possible to force through a rise of wages and a shortening of the working-day from 9-8 hours. The act of parcelling of 1919 can also be said to be a provision to modify the pressure. The prosperity in business continued a couple of years after the war, but was then succeeded by depression with very high rates of unemployment. After a short recovery in the late 19205, Denmark was also hit by the worldwide crisis in the 19305.

Fig. 3 shows the total number of industrial workers distributed on three groups of establishments. The interwar period, the years of World War 11, and up to 1948 do not show any tendency towards bigger establishments (local economic units). However, there is some development as to other aspects. Mechanization and the use of engine power made progress, Table 1.

Also the monopolization process advanced. Trusts and cartells were made and other competition-limiting arrangements appeared on the scene (E.Olsen 1962), who also states that the decreasing handicraft to some degree changed character from a producing trade to a service trade (repair and maintenance).

The post-war period

World War II had worn out the production machineries with a.o. a falling productivity as the result. When the »cold war« opened, USA granted loans and contributions (Marshall aid) to support an industrial expansion. The general long-run tendency towards larger local economic units was seen again, fig. 3.

The period 1950-57 was characterized by a slow economic growth. Denmark shared the international economic progress later than most other Western countries because of its dependency on exporting industries. The unemployment rate was high and increasing. The following years witnessed the highest economic increase ever since and especially high during the first part of the period, when the number of unemployed workers dropped sharply with lowest level in 1965 i.e. 2.3%. In the late sixties a recession set in with stagnant investments in the manufacturing industries and increasing unemployment. The growth rate was still high but lower than the previous years. This proved to be the prelude to the present crises where the unemployment has reached a rate surpassed only by the crisis in the 19305.

The increase in productivity has continued, especially for the second part of the growth period, although investments were greater during the first part. Specialization, economies of scale and mechanization have characterized the technological development. We have at the same time witnessed an incipient automatization and introduction of EDP, especially in finance and insurance.

Simultaneously there have been great changes in the
occupational industrial structure firstly because of the
prevailing kind of competition. The dominant monopolistictype

tictypewhere marketing, publicity, packing, design etc. are the essential elements of the competition has — together with increasing competition for technological extra profits — lead to a rapid expansion of the service

industries including the industrial services. At the same time the growing state intervention concerning planning purposes and reproduction of labour force is leading to a heavy increase in the public services, especially in the education and health sector (table 2).

Monopolization

The development of new methods in the production process, and in the marketing of the products as well, has stimulated a greater monopolization. Publication of ownership of shares etc. is prohibited by the Danish legislation, and this makes it unfortunately difficult to investigate how far the monopolization process has advanced. We shall therefore only show a few indicators.

The considerable reduction in number of self-employed persons, especially within agriculture, handicrafts and retail trade, experienced during the 1960s is perhaps the most conspicuous feature in the process (table 3).

This rough indication of the competition effects within
industries can be supplemented in different ways.

Although a concentration of employment or revenues on fewer firms in itself does not denote a centralization of the ownership, it may illustrate a trend. As examples we shall here briefly touch upon the concentration of firms within manufacturing, groceries, and banking activities.

During the last half of the 19605, for which period it is possible to obtain commensurable statistics, the development of the distribution of employed on firms in manufacturing proper has progressed as shown in table below.

As shown, firms with less than 20 employed loose a trifle of their relative share, but greater changes are not observable. This reflects the relatively steady growth of sales markets and production during the last part of the 19605. The stagnation in number of manufacturing workers does not correspond to a stagnation in production. The productivity of labour thus showed a rate of growth of 6.4% annually for the years 1966-71 (Ministry of Trade, 1974).

As a result of the competition, the period saw considerablerationalizations
and technological innovations,
which caused the reduction in the number of self-employedcraftsmen.

ployedcraftsmen.With the years of crisis in the 19705, changes in the size structure of the firms are to be expected, partly because some minor independent firms will close down, partly because the monopolies will concentrate their production on the most effective of their enterprises.

During the 1960s the retail trade has witnessed a strong concentration and centralization of capital and a reduction in the number of self-employed (table 3). This reduction has not been least powerful among the groceries (the number of independent groceries declined from about 13.200 in 1962 to about 8.200 in 1972, (B.J. Andersen, 1975)), which have also witnessed a range of new capital mergers. There has been a notable growth in the share of the sales held by chain stores, followed by a reduction in the number of such chains. In 1974 the 10 biggest chains and wholesale societies (among which the cooperative »Danmarks Brugsforening«) obtained about 45% of the total sales (B.J. Andersen, 1975).

A third example is the banks. The development of the
number of banking societies and in their balance sheets
are shown in table below.

There has thus been a considerable concentration towards the greater banks. The growth in middle-size societies is the result of a range of mergers among the societies in the Provinces.

It may seem surprising that the three great societies (which are narrowly connected with the Danish monopoly capital) did not increase their share markedly although they have bought some minor banking societies in the period. Although an explanation in greater detail would require an investigation of the development of the accounts of the single enterprises, this fact suggests that the relative growth of the monopoly capital does not occur as a result of a more effectively functioning banking apparatus which is ousting the smaller societies. On the contrary these too benefit from the policy of maximum profits conducted by the great banks. The growth of the monopolies in the banking world is due to the fact that they use their total power when buying smaller banks to high quotations. The competition may not altogether be without some effects, however, as shown by the many mergers of banking societies in the provinces with the purpose of opposing the increasing advance of the greater banks in spheres requiring great amounts of capital.

The result of such mergers and buying is a strong monopolization. An investigation of the capital size in three multinationally based Danish trusts (H. Andersen, 1974) shows that they together (F.L. Smidth & Co., Østasiatisk Kompagni, and A.P. Møller) directly influence some 35% of the total Danish share capital. Furthermore, these societies are owners of or otherwise exert an influence on a long range of enterprises outside Denmark.

Thus it can be concluded that monopoly societies to a great and even growing extent are decisive in economic life and that the laws governing the expansion of the monopoly capital therefore must be decisive to the development of the structure in the industries and to their geographical distribution.

Changes in the geographical division of labour

The general development of the unit: the productive
forces/production relations does not take place in an
empty space. The different regions offer different possibilitiesto

bilitiestothe individual capital because of differences in industrial structure, in infrastructure, in natural conditionsand resources, in population structure etc. Furthermore,changes in one region depend largely on the development in other regions.

Therefore the general trend — e.g. the growth of the
service industries — does not develop identically within
the Danish territorial structure.

In the following we shall try to summarize the most important changes in territorial structure, especially in the geographical division of labour, as they have taken place after World War 11, all conclusions are exclusively founded on the changes of occupational structure.

If, at first, we consider the changes between the sectors in broad outline (table 6, fig. 4) we notice that the decrease of the productive industries has taken place in all counties at almost the same rate. The most important exceptions are the counties of Roskilde and Frederiksborg which show a more rapid decrease and are approaching the industrial structure of Greater Copenhagen. This development also expresses that great parts of the two adjacent counties have become more integrated into the Greater Copenhagen area; they house many people who work in Greater Copenhagen.

The general decrease of the productive industries are not due to the same regional conditions. In the counties of Greater Copenhagen and Frederiksborg farming has greatly decreased during the last decades, and the number of people employed in industry is stagnating or decreasing too. In the rest of the country migration from farming is higher, but in return there is a considerable increase in industrial labour. The counties of Roskilde and Århus have a position in between the two types.

We can thus seperate an area in NE-Sjælland (the counties of Greater Copenhagen, Frederiksborg, and partly Roskilde) where the share of the productive industries is less than half, of farming it is very small, and of the industry it is stagnating or decreasing. The county of Århus with the second largest city in Denmark resembles parts of this area.

For the rest of the country the share of the productive industries — including farming — is considerably higher, and the share of the industry is increasing. This group shows rather great differences in the relation between industry and farming. Thus Viborg and Ringkøbing maintain an exceptional position by their permanent great share of agriculturally employed.

If we examine more closely the trend within the manufacturing industry, the most remarkable change is the very drastic decrease in employment within certain labour-intensive branches (leather and shoe, clothing, wood and textile industry) and a considerable decrease within other branches in Greater Copenhagen (articles of food and stimulants, the metallic industries etc.) whereas a capital-intensive branch as chemicals increases its share. Corresponding with the decrease of the labourintensive branches mentioned for Greater Copenhagen, there is an increase of one or several of the branches mentioned for the other counties. This increase is most conspicuous in mid- and western Jylland. While chemical industries, paper and graphic industries as well as iron and metallic industries are predominant in Greater Copenhagen and Frederiksborg, the counties of Århus, Viborg and Ringkøbing have mainly wood industries, leather and shoe, clothing and textile industries, (table 7).

In the counties of Vejle, Ribe, northern Jylland and the counties of Bornholm industries of food and stimulants together with one or two other branches characterize the industrial structure. For the two last mentioned a second branch is also a raw material oriented industry, i.e. the non-metallic mineral industry. In the counties of Fyn and Sønderjylland the basic metal industries predominate. The changes described here are not sufficient to provide an exact interpretation of the part played by the manufacturingindustries in the regional development in

Denmark. They only give a few hints. Partly, the classificationof industries is too rough, partly the statistics do not give information concerning the differences within the single branch. Finally sufficient information about financial conditions, technology etc. is missing.

In the service sector a dispersion of the employed has taken place simultaneously with a local concentration of the service units because of economies of scale. This gradual dispersion characterizes especially the personal services and to a less extent the branches which are linked to management, product development etc. Branches as industrial services, finances, insurance, higher education and government administration are to a great extent concentrated in the Greater Copenhagen area (table 8). All other areas of the country are undersupplied with these services, also E-Jylland (Århus) which only figures as a secondary centre. These facts express the unchallenged political and economical dominance of Copenhagen in the regional hierarchy of decisionmaking in Denmark.

The same is seen in the regional distribution of the different occupational categories (table 9). In NE-Sjælland (Greater Copenhagen and the counties of Copenhagen, Roskilde and Frederiksborg) 35% of the Danish population live, but 49% of all functionaries, 56% of the higher functionaries, and 64% of the superior functionaries. With the increasing socialization of production the agglomeration economies have achieved a greater importance in the localization of production units. Those (or part of them) which have been able to take the greatest adventages of the agglomeration economies are still heavily concentrated in NE-Sjælland (Fig. S).

The regional differences in unemployment and prices of labour force however, encouraged the dispersion of the labour-intensive manufacturing industries. The government intervention to promote a more equal distribution of the manufacturing industries has on the contrary had little influence on these changes compared with the spontaneous regulation of the market.

Unemployment. Development and regional distribution

Unemployment. Development regional
In fig. 6 the unemployment rate for the years 1940-75 is

shown as a time series. The curve can roughly be divided
into three sections each with a characteristic course and
level.

1940-44. During World War II the curve is rapidly
descending from the high level of 15% for 1940 to less
than 5% for 1944.

1945-58. Immediately after the war, the unemployment increased and reached a level around 9%. During these 14 years — with three exceptions — the rate fluctuated around 9%. The three mentioned exceptions (in 1952 and 1956-57) coincided with crises or recessions in the international capitalistic economy.

1960-73. After a transition year with a rapidly declining unemployment rate, it was for the following 13 years fluctuating around a new, rather stable level of 4%. the years 1964, 65, 66, were deviating as to unemployment and descended to 3%. A single year, 1968, the rate rose to 5%, once again coinciding with a recession on the world market. For the last two years, 1974 and 1975, the comprehensive crisis of the capitalist economies broke through and the unemployment rate rose again. Higher rates than the 1975-values are only found 23 years back in time.

A more detailed analysis of the last three years, fig. 7

which contains one »normal« year, one transition year, and one regular crisis year, shows great seasonal fluctationsin the unemployment rate. But, as it will be seen, both the peaks in the winter seasons and the low summer levels are rising for each of the three years.

On the basis of fig. 6 three years have been selected to study the regional variations. 1965, fig. 8 was the year when the unemployment rate reached the lowest level ever seen in Denmark, but the regional variations were great. Numbers lower than the mean are found in and around the big cities: Copenhagen and most of Sjælland, Odense and Århus as well as the Fredericia area and the island of Als (with the Danfoss factory). Adjacent to these areas some regions are found with an unemployment rate of 2.0-3.9%. The northern parts of Jylland and Bornholm are clearly deviating with rates between 6.0 and 7.9%. The Thisted area in northern Jylland is most seriously hit

(9.1%).

For 1970, fig. 9, the mean for the whole country was just under 4%, or at the mentioned general level for the period 1960-73. Areas with pronounced low unemployment rates — in this »normal« period — are Copenhagen, NE-Sjælland and the island of Als in S-Jylland. At the other end of the scale, the Hjørring area now accompanies Thisted in the hardest hit category. Of all the remaining areas every second of them has moved one class up in unemployment rate.

1974, fig. 10 is the first year of crisis. The mean for the country is 5.5%. This general rise for the country as a whole is clearly reflected on the figure, Copenhagen and Als are falling in a special class. The general picture is that most of the larger cities — Odense, Århus, Esbjerg — are found in areas with an unemployment rate under the mean level, while N-Jylland including Ålborg is a large, unbroken »island« of unemployment. In relation to this development, a tendency emerges, table 10, i.e. that areas which originally had a high rate of unemployment are not evidencing a relative increase as high as for areas which originally had a lower unemployment rate.

The relation between the areas with the lowest and
highest unemployment are the following (Source: Arbej
dsløshedsstatistikken):

1965 (1 : 15), 1970 (1 : 9) and 1974 (1 : 5).

Regional distribution of income and property

The thematic map, fig. 11, is based upon statistical data on mean taxable income of tax-paying persons on counties (amter) and the municipalities of Copenhagen and Frederiksberg. The analysed category (taxable income) is found by subtracting deduction-entitled amounts from the gross income. Especially the size of interests on real property is decisive for the pattern on the figure, as many people living in the periphery and hinterland landof larger cities have a house of their own. Likewise in agricultural areas, while most towndwellers are renting flats. The regional pattern is rather simple. The county of Copenhagen and the .municipality of Frederiksberg (a relatively prosperous part of Copenhagen) appear in the highest category. The municipality of Copenhagen as well as the two counties in NE-Sjælland, Frederiksborg and Roskilde, adjacent to the mentioned area, are found in the second highest category. With the exception of Viborg and Bornholm counties, the remaining counties appear in the income category 20.000-22.500 D.kr.

Fig. 12 shows the regional distribution of mean property. In a way this map appears as another aspect of fig. 11 as the property of most main persons depends on possession of house or land (farms). Another factor of importance is of course the land value.

NE-Sjælland is still clearly deviating from the rest of the country. Noteworthy is, however, that the municipality of Copenhagen separates itself from the surrounding counties as it is placed in the lowest category. W and S-Sjælland and Ringkøbing county in Jylland appear in a medium category. The seven remaining counties — Fyn, most of Jylland and Bornholm — are falling in the second-lowest category, and only Copenhagen falls in a lower category.

The theory — some comments

Much of the foregoing has the character of a description of the regional structure of the Danish society and of the development of the mode of production which has shaped this structure.

Concluding it would be natural to give a more profound explanation of the observed regional phenomena and comment on two perceptions of these problems, given by B. Lynnerup et al. (1974) and S. Andersson et al. (1971) respectively.

Lynnerup et al. (1974)

We shall here not touch upon the general explanation of geographical concentration, given by the so-called »school of capitallogics«, but only deal with the part of the theory that tries to explain the geographical dispersion of the manufacturing employment in Denmark during the last decennies.

After a description of the geographical development of the employment in manufacturing 1949-65 and a discussion of the different measures of the average organic composition of capital within the different branches, Lynnerup et al. conclude that branches with a low composition of capital have been more apt to shift their location from Copenhagen to the countryside (especially to peripheral areas) than branches with high composition of capital. Lynnerup et al. explain this as follows:

Assuming that all industries want a location in the Copenhagen area (industries narrowly connected to localized raw materials are ignored), the limited share available of desired space will cause a competition about the location which will result in high rents. Firms with a lower organic composition will for several reasons be more sensitive to this than firms with higher organic composition of capital:

a. Firms with high organic composition of capital
normally have a big fixed capital which hampers a
moving.

b. Firms with a high composition of capital are less apt
to move to get a lower-paid labour force.

c. Firms which have the greatest possibilities to make
investments that will reduce the space needed remain in
the agglomeration.

This favours firms with a rapid development of means of production leading to a rationalization of part-processes; i.e. usually firms in branches with a high or at least rapidly growing organic composition of capital. The growing productivity of labour resulting from the investments intended to better the valorisation may imply that the areas in the centre can reduce their share of employment while having a growing share of capital and production. The outcome is a geographical distribution of the firms with the organic composition tapering off from the centre.

Point c, however, leads to a contradiction which the theory can solve only with difficulties. If the mobility of the labour-power does not equalize very quickly the geographical differences in the labour reserve, then point c will mean that the labour reserve will be relatively great in the centre-areas, so that firms with a low organic composition of capital too will be disinclined to move; this owing to the tendency of an inverse relationship between the size of the labour reserve and the wage.

Further the theory does not satisfactorily explain the maintenance on the long view of the regional disparities. The theory assumes, however, that the capitals in the centres on an average come better off in the competition with capitals outside the centres as a result of economies of scale and agglomeration. Under an economic crisis this will cause bankrupt capitals in the peripheral areas, and it would be natural to assume that also in other phases of the accumulation cycle, the rate of profit will be higher in the centre than in the periphery.

Here it is assumed, however, that there is a competition between the capitals in the centre and in the periphery. This is the case between firms in the same branch not between firms in different branches (or only to a limited extent); they — according to the theory, as a result of their different organic capital composition — are localized in different areas to obtain the equalized rate of profit, it would not further be possible to obtain areas, whose growth will be systematically favoured. Confronted with realities, the theory will thus fail.

Andersson et al. (1971)

Already the dispersion of manufacturing which took place in the 1950s and gained momentum about 1960 — though only at a limited scale — was surprising in relation to the general perception of a steady, geographical concentration of manufacturing and employment. Here we shall touch upon the explanation of this phenomenon which was based on the model of monopoly-capitalism put forward by Baran & Sweezy (1966) on geographical circumstances and the linking of the model with an evaluation of the influence which the technological development had on localization.

This model is e.g. used by Andersson et al. (1971) to explain the regional development in Sweden in the 1960s and is, although seldom stated, used in the Danish discussion about the problem too.

A central feature in the model given by Baran and Sweezy is the monopolies' abolition of competition on prices and the use of their growing profits for unproductive purposes such as advertising, marketing, different sorts of services etc. Further the growing tasks of the state as an economic regulator, especially through industries connected to military and space research.

Viewed geographically this means: the value that is created in the productive parts of the monopolies will further on be used in the unproductive sectors which will show a strong growth in relation to other parts of the economy. These sectors will for a lot of reasons (Andersson et al. 1971 p. 99) to a great extent be localized in the big cities, where the headquarters of the monopolies are established and thus these cities will grow. The unproductive private service activities will (because of their higher profit per. sq.m., they can rise the rents of space) oust the manufacturing industries at least from the more central parts of the larger towns, and this will be reinforced by the growing numbers of buildings used by the state.

The technologically improved means of transportation and supply of energy have caused an equalization of the regional disparities in the rates of profit between the manufacturing firms which depend on these factors. From a pure technical point of view it has therefore gradually become almost unimportant where in the country firms are localized. The development in the communication apparatus as well has caused that it is possible today to separate the administration of a firm from its productive operative parts without causing notable damage neither to the management of the firm nor to the marketing of the commodities. In this way the productive parts of a firm has become unities which can be localized independently and where the influence of the localization on the obtainable rate of profit can be separately evaluated.

The expenditure for wages has a remarkable importance for a long range of industries and they vary regionally. Where labour-power with lower wages and with the necessary structure of qualifications for the industry in question can be obtained, this will mean a pressure on a migration to (or an expansion in) areas of low-wages in the provinces in order to obtain higher profits.

The emigration from the Copenhagen area is partly composed of some small independent firms for whom the personal contacts to the market, to the high finance and to the state administration is of less importance and who the competition has made interested in a move, partly of real laying-out of subsidiaries. These two groups seem to be spread almost the same way (Askgaard, 1970, p.

164-165). Thus the following picture can be drawn:

In the big cities there will be a decline of the employment in manufacturing, especially in industries using mainly unskilled labour power, and a growth in the private service activities and in the functions of the state apparatus which far exceeds the decline in the manufacturing

In the rest of the country the population will decline relatively or even absolutely, but manufacturing industries will grow (absolute and relative). Of course, some regions will here get an overall growth because of a strong impetus of manufacturing, while others, which become no share in the dispersion of industry will suffer from a tremendous decline (this tendency will be very pronounced on islands of small or medium size).

This model seemed generally satisfactory as an at least superficial explanation of the development in Denmark during the 19605. As mentioned, it has been used by Andersson et al. (1971) for a description of the development in Sweden as well. But the dispersion of population experienced in Denmark 1971-74 made the theory dubious and confronted with a more theoretically based criticism, the theory cannot be accepted either.

The incorrectness of the model is connected with the fact that it derives the laws for the general and with this also for the geographical development of capitalism from the approach of ensuring sales, i.e. form the sphere of circulation, not from the maximalization of the surplus value in the production. It is hardly an incident that a strong, relative redistribution of the employed occurred during 1971-73, where the pursuing of surplus profits for valorisation of the capital was, the most intensive and therefore the attempt to exploit the total geographical area and the greatest possible population for this purpose too. At least the more fundamental explanations of the regional development must be sought in the striving for surplus profits by the monopolies (and to a certain extent from the small capitals) in the different phases of the accumulation cycle.

The attempts that can be made to »save« the theory based on Baran and Sweezy in its geographical formulation by giving ad hoc explanations to the dispersion of the population during the years 1971-74 as e.g. the staff-expanding consequences of the reform in the municipality structure in the peripheral areas or the result hoped for and obtained by the farmers of the Danish membership of the Common Market (B. Nielsen, 1974b) seem at any rate to be unsufficient as explanation to the regional development process.

RESUME

Den industrielle udvikling i Danmark fra midten af 1800-tallet var i høj grad baseret på det hjemmemarked, som de voksende indkomster i landbruget skabte. Først sent overhaler industrien landbruget, i 1930'erne for beskæftigelsens, i 1958 for eksportens

Til trods for dette ændres befolkningsfordelingen i landet hurtigt fra omkring 1870. Mens det tidligere navnlig var jordens ydeevne med den anvendte udnyttelsesmetode, der var afgørende for befolkningstætheden (se fig. 2), bliver det fra dette tidspunkt med den kapitalistiske produktionsmådes gennembrud især mulighederne for kapitalakkumulation, der bliver bestemmende. Københavnsområdet bliver på grund af dets tidlige inddragelse i pengeøkonomien, dets større marked og jernbanenettets udbygning det store vækstcentrum i landet. Der opstår en regional arbejdsdeling, der udstrækkes til stadig flere erhverv.

I årene efter anden verdenskrig har en række ændringer i
erhvervsstrukturen og i den regionale arbejdsdeling fundet sted:

Der har generelt været en stærk vækst i arbejdsproduktiviteten,
navnlig i den sidste halvdel af 1960'erne.

Der har fundet en betydelig vækst i beskæftigelsen i serviceerhvervene
sted, mens industribeskæftigelsen er stagneret fra
omkring 1965 som følge af automatiseringen.

Arbejdsløsheden faldt fra et niveau omkring 9% i årene
1945-58 til omkring 4% i årene 1960-73. Herefter er arbejdsløsheden
påny steget.

Der er sket en kraftig monopolisering, som især har ytret sig
ved, at antallet af selvstændige næringsdrivende i landbrug,
håndværk og detailhandel er faldet voldsomt (tabel 3).

Regionalt har der specielt i 1960'erne været en stærk spredning af industribeskæftigelsen, specielt inden for arbejdsintensive brancher (skotøjs-, beklædnings-, træ- og tekstilindustri), mens en kapitalintensiv branche som kemisk industri er blevet yderligere koncentreret til Hovedstadsområdet (tabel 4).

Brancher som erhvervsservice, finans, forsikring, højere uddannelse og statsadministration er stærkt koncentreret til Storkøbenhavn (tabel 5). Alle andre områder i landet er underforsynet med disse brancher. Kun Århusområdet fremtræder som et sekundært center.

Arbejdsløshedens regionale fordeling i årene 1965, 1970 og 1974 (år med henholdsvis lav, normal og høj arbejdsløshed) er vist på fig. 8, 9 og 10. Arbejdsløsheden i de store byområder er generelt lavere end i det øvrige land, men der er en tendens til, at disse forskelle er mindre i kriseår, hvor alle regioner bliver ramt, end i højkonjunkturen, hvor ikke alle områder synes at komme med i opsvinget.

Den regionale arbejdsdeling bevirker store regionale indkomst
- og formueforskelle, se fig. 11 og 12.

Lynnerup et al. (1974) har søgt at forklare de regionale uligheder og den geografiske udvikling af industribeskæftigelsen ved at argumentere for at kapitalismen tenderer mod at skabe en geografisk fordeling af virksomheder med faldende organisk sammensætning fra storbycentrene. Konsekvensen af deres model er imidlertid, at når virksomheder i forskellige brancher i kraft af deres uens organiske sammensætning er anbragt i forskellige områder, er det umuligt længere at påvise områder, hvis vækst systematisk begunstiges.

Andersson et al. (1971) har hævdet, at de store byers vækst fortsat begunstiges på trods af den industrielle udflytning, idet monopolernes konkurrence på teknologisk udvikling og ved anvendelsen af servicefunktioner samt de stadig mere omfattende statsindgreb vil styrke storbyernes vækst. Befolkningsspredningen i Danmark efter 1971 har rejst tvivl om teoriens rigtighed, og der er behov for en teori om den regionale udviklings forløb under kapitalakkumulationens forskellige faser.

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