Guttesen, Rolf: Migration trends on the Faroe Islands. Geografisk
Tidsskrift 84: 74-78. Copenhagen, January 1984.

New tendencies in the migration streams to and from the faroe Islands are examined. In 1973, for the first time in more than 35 years, there was a net immigration to the Faroes, and up to 1982, in spite of fluctuations, there has - combined - been a net immigration. Changes in the age and sex structure for some typical migration cases are examined.

Rolf Guttesen, Senior Lecturer. Geographical Institute, University
of Copenhagen, Haraldsgade 68, DK-2100 Copenhagen 0,
Denmark.

Keywords: Migrations, population studies, Faroe Islands, small
areas.

The Faroe Islands, which are an autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark situated in the North Atlantic between Iceland and Scotland, reached with the beginning of 1984 a population of nearly 45,000. During the last decade it has increased by 12.6%, an annual rate of increase of 1.2%. Both the production- and the export structure deviates much from the remaining Denmark, as fishing industry is the basal trade, see e.g. R. Guttesen (1982).

The demographic development including the migrations has previously been described by this author (see list of references), but also a number of official publications are available, e.g. Det Rådgivende Udvalg v. Færøerne (1969) and Danmarks Statistik (1979), whose population prognoses and estimates of growth rates have appeared to be realistic only in some aspects. The development in fertility and mortality rates has held rather well, while the assumptions related to the migrations, especially in the older publications, clearly missed the mark.

The main reason for this disjuncture is that the crisis in the capitalistic world economy, that started with the socalled oil crisis in 1973, had been an unforeseen factor, or had at least unforeseen effects. Previous economic crises, as in the 30's and 50's, induced increased emigrations from the Faroes, R. Guttesen (1970 and 1971). But in 1973 and the following years the migration streams behaved directly opposite. For the first time since the first post-war years, when quite special conditions played a role, the Faroes experienced a net-immigration. Furthermore, this new tendency has continued.

It is the aim of this paper to describe and analyse this
phenomenon, together with related aspects of the population

Fig. 1 shows that the fertility rate since the mid-sixties
has been falling - from about 26%0 to about 17%0. In the

beginning of the 80's, however, the rate has decreased. It can furthermore be expected that the »bulge« from the 60's in the near future will result in a slightly increasing fertility rate.

The mortality rate has in the period been quite stable
around 7%0, with deviations to both sides up to l°/00, but
with no clear tendency, though the population is aging.

Together these two rates are giving the natural increase
rate that, as a consequence of the decreasing fertility rate,
has been reduced from 18%0 to about 10%0. Compared
with the remaining Denmark, one has to turn back to the
40's to find a natural increase rate of 10%0 or more.

The two other components that are determining the real increase rate, emi- and immigration, are delineated in fig. 2. The figure naturally falls into three periods. The first - 1966 to 1971 - is characterized by a relatively low immigration to the Faroese together with a strongly fluctuating emigration - one that in this priod reaches its highest relative value (1970: 39.3°/oo) since the massive emigrations in the 50's. The second period - 1972 to 1977 - differs from the first in having a much higher immigration. This, in addition to an emigration of about the same size as in the previous period resulted, for the first time in more than 35 years, in a net immigration to the Faroes. The third period - 1978 to 1982 - has as a whole a falling tendency for both emi- as well as immigration and with less fluctuations from year to year such as testified by the figures for the standard deviation in table 1.

As stated by Ewerett S. Lee (1966) selectivity is one of
the laws of migrations; and it has previously been shown

that also the streams examined here follow this law, R. Guttesen (1970 and 1971). Thus, as much as 50% of the net migration from the Faroes were women 15-19 years old in the period 1961 to 1968, a period with a relatively high emigration rate.

The analysis of the migrations, as shown in fig. 2 with the following grouping in three periods, leads to the question whether these periods differ qualitatively in age- and sex structure?

The character of the statistical material available unfortunately gives problems, as there are no figures for the age- and sex structure related to the migrations to and from the Faroes and the world as a whole, only for the streams between the Faroes and the remaining Denmark, but these usually make up more than 80% of the total. Furthermore - regarding detailed figures for the migrations - the years 1969 and 1970 are missing in the Danish statistical publications.

Fig. 3a-b shows for the analysed period how the two numerically most important age groups: 15 to 24 and 25 to 44 years - for both men and women develop Tor emiand immigration. Those 0-14 years old are considered passive migrants, and those over 44 years constitute an insignificant group, e.g. in 1975 only 5.2% of the gross number.

Regarding the emigration, the tendency is quite clear for both men and women, as the younger age group in both cases has a decreasing share. For the men, the two groups are tending to be of the same size in the later years, while the young women - despite a decrease in relative numbers - still make up the largest group.

The same tendencies can be read from the figures for the immigration, of which the majority must be regarded as persons returning to the Faroes after some years of stay in Denmark. For the men the age groups are changing place, as age group 25-44 for the last seven years has been the largest group. The two delineated age groups of women do not yet cross each other, but have clearly been approaching.

The impact of the changing migration tendencies, fig. 2, together with the different weight of the main migrating groups, fig. 3, are, concerning the age- and sex structure, shown in the »pyramids« on fig. 4. Here the average structure for three contiguous years have been computed to avoid incidental yearly fluctuations.

1966-68 is a typical emigration period. The net migration »pyramid« illustrates that only the group of women between 25-29 years has a net immigration and that it is very little. All the other groups show a net emigration, and for the most part, young women between 15-19 years.

1973-75 are three contiguous years with net immigration, and these immigrants are from all the age groups except from the above-mentioned group of young women. It is also clear that this »pyramid« is more top-heavy, as the largest group of immigrants are those between 25 and 29 years.

1979-81 is a period with a near balance between the two streams, or more exactly, a net immigration of only 46. This situation gives a third type of »pyramid« that has net emigration for both sexes in the age groups 15-19 as well as 20-24. On the other hand, there is a net immigration for all other significant groups.

When the figures for natural increase and for the net migration are combined, as done in fig. 5, it gives a pictureof the demographic situation as a whole, where the real increase rate, read on the oblique lines in the figure, displays significant fluctuations: between -2.2%0 in 1970

and +18.8%0 in 1975. The tendency towards stabilizing or diminishing fluctuations that was discussed in connection with fig. 2 can, of course, also be found in this figure, where the real increase rate for the last 10 years fluctuates about + 4 to each side of 12°/00.

This recent trend towards a stabilization of the migration streams cannot, however, be used as an arguement to forecast a prolonging of these trends. The migrations are especially sensitive to changes in social conditions in the place of origin and the place of destination. This is expressed in the so-called push and pull effect, whose complicated aspects are too voluminous to be analysed here, however. Some of them have been discussed in other connections, e.g. R. Guttesen (1982 and 1983 a, b, c, d). In short, some of the main factors that have reduced the push effect are: a general increase in the standard of living on the Faroes, an increasing number of jobs for women and particularly in the fishing industry in the medium-sized villages, better infrastructure, better education opportunities for young people, and too, an increasing demand for educated people.

On the other hand, it is clear that the economic crisis at the point of destination has, broadly speaking, reduced the pull effect: the number of unemployed is today over 300,000 in Denmark, the housing conditions have not improved, admissions to many branches of education has been reduced. These are some of the main points.

However, this is not to say that the social and economic development on the Faroes has been without crises and problems. For instance the fishery stopped totally as the price system in effect for fish landed on the Faroes broke down in 1975, and again in 1981 the state had to intervene when the world market prices for fish products declined, described e.g. in R. Guttesen (1980 and 1981).

Resumé

De sidste ti års mønster i migrationerne til og fra Færøerne har fremvist helt nye tendenser, som afviger meget fra, hvad der er beskrevet for tidligere perioder, se f.eks. R. Guttesen (1970). Bortset fra et enkelt år lige efter Verdenskrigen, havde der været en større eller mindre nettoudvandring fra Færøerne. Med hensyn til alders- og kønsfordeling blev resultatet, at det i høj grad var kvinder i aldersgruppe 15-19 år, der udvandrede. De udgjorde således hele 50% af nettoudvandringen i perioden 1961-1968.

Men fra 1973 skifter billedet, se fig. 2. Det bliver da til en betydelig nettoindvandring, og billedet holder sig faktisk nogenlunde konstant de følgende år. I perioden 1973 til 82 er der seks år med nettoindvandring og kun fire med nettoudvandring, men disse udvandringstal når langt fra tallene fra 60'erne i størrelse. Det er især vandringerne til Færøerne, der er steget, medens fravandringerne har ligget på nogenlunde samme leje.

Ud fra fig. 2 opdeles forløbet i tre perioder, 1966-71, 1972-77 og 1978-82, der kan karakteriseres ud fra tallene for hhv. ud-, ind-, og nettovandringen. Intentionen var at undersøge disse perioder m.h.t. alders- og kønsfordelingen, men der er problemer med den publicerede statistik. Der findes kun opgørelser på køn og aldersgrupper for vandringerne mellem Færøerne og Danmark. Endvidere mangler der, i denne række oplysninger for årene 1969 og 70. Det var derfor nødvendigt at begrænse perioderne til årene 1966-68, 1973-75 og 1979-81, som repræsenterer typiske udvandringsår, indvandringsår samt år med omtrentlig ligevægt. Det viser sig. at pyramiderne, fig. 4 for disse typeår også bliver meget forskellige i struktur. Der har endvidere i den undersøgte årrække været tendens til, at de yngre aldersklasser har aftagende andel i migrationerne, medens de ældres andel vokser, se fig. 3.

De bagvedliggende faktorer, der indvirker på forskellig vis på vandringernes »push and pull«, kan ikke behandles i denne korte artikel. Der henvises til andre af forfatterens afhandlinger, som dog heller ikke gør billedet fuldstændigt.

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