Erhvervshistorisk Årbog

Lovgivning i krigens skygge – dansk boligregulering fra 1939 til 1945

Jens Frederik Hansen — Thu, 22 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

Under besættelsen opstod der en omfattende bolignød. I den historiske tradition er årsagen angivet som en uheldig kombination af fald i nybyggeriet og den demografiske udvikling. En alternativ forklaring er, at boligmanglen skyldtes lovindgreb i efteråret 1939, hvor der indførtes et lejeloft, som blev fastholdt konsekvent under hele krigen.

Når man tager hensyn til såvel husleje som varmeudgifterne viser det sig, at udsving i efterspørgslen kan forklares ud fra økonomiske standardteori. Det nominelle huslejeloft var indledningsvis uden virkning, da stærkt stigende energipriser straks efter krigens udbrud drev efterspørgslen ned og førte til flere ledige boliger. Da lønningerne dernæst begyndte at indhente prisinflationen førte det til stigende efterspørgsel efter boliger fra foråret 1942, hvor antallet af ledige boliger var faldet betydeligt. Nedgangen fortsatte og fra slutningen af 1943 begyndte omfanget af husvilde at stige – en udvikling, der vedblev indtil efter befrielsen. Dette indikerer, at når markedet ikke var i stand til at tilpasse priserne på grund af lejeloftet, så steg efterspørgslen astronomisk.

For værdien af boligmassen medførte stigninger i de løbende driftsomkostninger sammenholdt med det lovbestemte loft over bruttoindtjeningen, at rentabiliteten i boligudlejning som erhverv forsvandt.

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Rent control in Denmark during WW II

The article re-tells the story of the housing market and rent control legislation in Denmark during the Second World War. By looking at housing cost as the sum of rent paid to landlords and heating it is possible to explain the fluctuations in demand in conformity with standard economic theory. This may also be used to explain the continuing amendments to the legislation. While a nominal rent control was in place from September 1939 the reality was that spiralling energy prices drove down demand leading to excess housing. When salaries started catching up with price inflation increasing housing demand was felt, probably from early spring ’42, and by then the available number of leaseholds was significantly reduced. By late ’42 the number was insignificant and by the end of ’43 the number of persons relying on the emergency housing provided by the local councils was increasing and continued to increase beyond the liberation in May ’45, a clear sign that since the market was unable to react with higher prices due to rent controls the demand went through the roof.

Looking at the capital value of the housing stock it is self-evident that running costs increased significantly and with gross incomes fixed by law the profits of the sector evaporated. This must have had severe implications for the capital value of housing although the temporary character of the legislation probably postponed the effect.

Det 20. århundredes »Dannevirke« – naturgassens rolle som ombejlet og udskældt naturretlig ressource 1968-2022

Kasper Thissenius Haunstrup Rathjen — Thu, 22 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

I denne artikel undersøges naturgassens historie og rolle i dansk energihistorie samt dens betydning for udviklingen af et dansk forsyningssikkerhedsbegreb. TYRA, Danmarks største naturgasfelt, gik i produktion 1. oktober 1984, og havde det primære formål at gøre danskerne uafhængige af den ustabile olieimport fra Mellemøsten. I artiklen betragtes naturgassen som en naturressource, omkring hvilken følgende udviklingstrin foregår: monopolisering, konflikt og homogenitet. TYRA blev en manifestation af et fremvoksende dansk forsyningssikkerhedsbegreb. Men naturgassen var også en naturretlig ressource, som A.P. Møller havde fået eneret til at indvinde i 1962, hvorfor de juridiske omstændigheder for denne retlige tilstand under 1970’ernes energikriser måtte revurderes. I artiklen undersøges denne udvikling samt de forskellige måder, hvorpå en ressource kan monopoliseres direkte eller indirekte. Afslutningsvist med afsæt i de seneste årtiers globalisering og klimadagsorden undersøges naturgassens rolle i en verden, hvor energikrise og forsyningssikkerhed igen er blevet højaktuelt.

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The role of natural gas in the development of Danish security of supply, 1968-2022

This paper examines the history and importance of natural gas and its role in the Danish conceptualization of security of supply. TYRA—Denmark’s largest natural gas field—started production on October 1st, 1984, with the primary goal of helping Denmark achieve independence from the Arab oil. The paper focusses on natural gas as a natural resource around which the following development occurs: Monopolization, conflict, and homogenization. TYRA became the physical manifestation of a developing Danish concept of security of supply. However, the natural gas was also a natural resource, which A.P. Møller in 1962 had monopolized the right to extract, forcing the legal context of this right to be reevaluated in light of the energy crises of the 1970s. This development is examined as well as the different ways in which a natural resource can be monopolized. Lastly, it focuses on the resource’s role in a globalized, current world fighting climate change, while reliving energy crises and rediscovering the necessity of security of supply.

Efter den store recession og Covid-19: tid til at revurdere mainstream makro? – DSGE-modeller og det heterodokse alternativ

Finn Olesen — Thu, 22 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

Selvom den seneste internationale økonomiske krise – The Great Recession – og den nuværende Covid-19 pandemi fik flere til at sætte et spørgsmålstegn ved validiteten af den herskende makroøkonomiske mainstream, er det stadigvæk denne tænkning med deres DSGE-modeller, som på central vis indtager den makroøkonomiske scene i Danmark som internationalt. Men findes der et relevant alternativ hertil? Og hvad er det mere præcist, som en sådan tilgang har at tilbyde? Dette essay handler om mainstreams DSGE-modeller samt det heterodokse alternativ, og hvordan man kan undervise i makroteori.

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After the Great Recession and the Pandemic – must mainstream macroeconomics change to become better in accordance with facts of real life?

Today, the scene of macroeconomics is still dominated by the New Neoclassical Synthesis, NNS, and the DSGE models. Although exposed to criticism by the events of the Great Recession and the nature of the current Pandemic there do not seem to be a macroeconomic revolution in sight for the near future. But must the mainstream change to become better in accordance with facts of real life? And is there really no relevant heterodox alternative to the NNS? Moreover, how should you teach macroeconomics the right way?