A Note on the Theiasmos of Nicias in Thucydides

Nanno Marinatos — Mon, 09 Aug 2021 00:00:00 +0200

Thucydides criticises Nicias for being too partial to divination (7.50.4). It is suggested here through the examination of the linguistic nuances of θειασμός and the verb προσκείμενος, that Thucydides assessed him negatively primarily because he took the side of the army-seers. Yet, this criticism ought not to be blown out of proportion. Thucydides’ portrait differs significantly from Plutarch’s who describes Nicias as a diffident man easily gripped by fear and addicted to prophecies. Consequently, Thucydides’ criticism is a small parenthesis in his overall presentation of the Athenian general’s career whose decisions were based on skill, rational criteria and experience (5.16.1).

Foreseeing the Past: Probability and Ancient Greek Decision-Making

Paul Vădan — Mon, 09 Aug 2021 00:00:00 +0200

The article explores the concept of probability in ancient Greece from a non-scientific perspective and shows how ancient decision-makers used historical data to make calculated decisions and speculate about the future. First, the paper considers how quantitative data was used by ancient Greek communities to make economic projections. It then shows how ancient Greek generals used the same conceptual tools to determine their odds of victory by tallying up and comparing the number and composition of armies and resources available to them and their enemy. In the third section, the paper examines how qualitative probability was articulated through the language of hope and likelihood to formulate chances of success in moments of crisis. Finally, the paper shows that ancient decision-makers implemented “power laws” to adapt to changing circumstances and the flow of new information, as they sought to improve their odds of success relative to their rivals.

Classica et Mediaevalia

A Note on the Theiasmos of Nicias in Thucydides

Foreseeing the Past: Probability and Ancient Greek Decision-Making